Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

The Cardinals are a pretty good team, even when they’re beat up.  Albert Pujols made his return and the knock on the Tigers has been that they’ve only played well against the bad teams.  Hopefully the Tigers dispelled that myth here this weekend with a sweep at home over the Cardinals. 

The Cardinals and the Tigers have quite a past and two of the Tigers nine World Series appearances were against the Cardinals.  In 1934, probably the greatest Tiger team of all time lost an exciting seven game series to the Gas House Gang.  And then in 1968, the Tigers beat the Cardinals in another exciting seven game series and became one of the few teams to ever come from behind from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series.

Curtis Granderson had an excellent series against the Cardinals this weekend.  He had seven hits and he scored six runs in the three games against the Redbirds and he even hit a homerun and stole a base.  We’re not even at the midpoint season and he has 51 runs and he’s now hovering just under the .300 mark with a .296 batting average.  He’s also doing his job at the leadoff spot and he’s seventh in the American League with 4.2 pitches per plate appearance and the guys in front of him are some pretty big names (Jason Giambi and Manny Ramirez are two of them).  He could have somewhat of a decline in the second half because he might not be able to keep up his .387 batting average on balls in play but even if he tapers off, he should put up some pretty nice numbers in his first full season.

What a game on Saturday.  Marcus Thames came in and hit a two run homerun in the bottom of the ninth off of Jason Isringhausen to tie the game up.  Thames didn’t drive in the winning run, but it was that blast that put the Tigers in a position to win that game.  Thames now has 15 homeruns in 165 at bats and his slugging percentage is .661.  He has 28 extra base hits and the team leader, Granderson, has 32.  And that’s in a little more then half of the at bats.

I didn’t confirm this, but I heard on the radio that only two previous Tiger teams have had at least 50 wins at the 75 game mark.  The one time was 1984 when the Tigers won their last World Series.  The other time was 1911, who were 51-24 at the 75 game mark.  The 1911 team really collapsed shortly after that.  Their high point was 59-24 when they were 5 1/2 games in first place on July 18, 1911.  After that point they went 30-41 and finished in second place, 13 1/2 games out of first place.  1911 is also what was probably Ty Cobb’s best season.  He hit .420 that year, his career best and the eighth best single season average of all time.

Next up is the Astros, who are playing right now against the White Sox.  And speaking of the Sox, they’re still red hot.  If they can pull this game out (they’re down 2-1), they’ll have won their tenth straight game.  Tuesday’s matchup is probably the most interesting because it’ll be Roger Clemens second start since coming back for the Astros.

UPDATE

Speaking of milestones, this the 1,000 post at Tigerblog.  Most were written by me, but a few others made did their share as well.  It took me over three years to get here so post 2,000 will probably happen sometime in 2010.

The Tigers’ game was rained out tonight in Baltimore, so they end up with a split of what turned out to be a two game series.  I’m annoyed because I picked up Justin Verlander in my fantasy baseball league because he was set to have two starts (we have a one week lock), but now with everyone being pushed back, that’s not going to happen.  In fact with rain in the forecast and Cleveland just down the street, we might see some more rain delays, if not postponed games.

This should be an interesting upcoming series.  The Indians have been struggling, but they’re still a dangerous team.  If the Tigers can manage two out of three, they can further push the Indians down and give them some early breathing room by making it a two team race out of the gate.

Note to self – If you’re going to throw up a section with the AL Central standings, try to keep it updated.  I thought it would be a cool function but I’ll try to make a better effort to keep it current.

I’m going to be doing an occasional piece for Creative Sports, a fantasy baseball website.  Once or twice a week I’ll be writing up something on the Tigers from a fantasy perspective and my first piece should go out tomorrow.  I recommend you check out the site if you’re into fantasy baseball.

This was a nice way to end a four game losing streak.  Brandon Inge went deep twice and drove in three of the Tigers’s five runs.  And the Tigers didn’t waste much time getting on the board either.  They scored all five of their runs by the fourth inning.  Chris Shelton tripled again and drove in a run, and Curtis Granderson hit his third homerun of the season.

Kenny Rogers had his best start so far.  One run on seven hits in eighth innings.  Fernando Rodney gave up a single in the ninth, but the Indians never really threatened.

A solid win against a solid team.  Bonderman throws this afternoon against Fausto Carmona.  Carmona will be making his major league debut, so hopefully we’ll be able to jump all over the rookie.

Lee Panas over at Tiger Tales has been going over the position “battles” (such as they are) pretty thoroughly, and in some of the comments, a consensus was emerging about playing Nook Logan at least sometimes against lefties. Then it occurred to me that, with Dmitri Young’s flexibility to play 1B, 3B and corner OF (assuming the reports about his significant weight loss/better shape are correct – and, by the way, click that link and check out the photo of a really young, much skinnier Dmitri Young… it’s almost comical), we could actually have some interesting platoon possibilities. That led me to look up the 3-year splits (I’ll list just OPS) of the following 8 players (for 6 positions: 1B, 3B, DH and 3 OF’ers) over at espn.com:

Carlos Pena: 702 v L, 831 v R (129 better v R)
Chris Shelton: 765 v L, 871 v R (106 better v R)
Dmitri Young: 823 v L, 858 v R (35 better v R)
Brandon Inge: 851 v L, 674 v R (177 better v L)
Magglio Ordonez: 921 v L, 856 v R (65 better v L)
Curtis Granderson: 1033 v L, 751 v R (282 better v L)
Nook Logan: 772 v L, 606 v R (166 better v L)
Craig Monroe: 862 v L, 738 v R (124 better v L)

Going by those numbers alone (and I’ll grant to anyone who wants to argue that some of these numbers are coming from very small sample sizes… and I also acknowledge the sabermetric argument out there that, given enough plate appearances, platoon differentials will essentially become the same for all players), here’s how to best fill the 6 available slots against left-handed pitching:

Shelton 1B, Inge 3B, Dmitri DH, Monroe LF, Granderson CF, Ordonez RF, leaving Nook and Carlos Pena for pinch-hitting/defensive replacement duties.

Against right-handers:

Shelton 1B, Dmitri 3B, Pena DH, Monroe LF, Granderson CF, Ordonez RF, leaving Inge and Logan for defensive replacement duties.

Originally, my thought was that perhaps Logan’s split would argue in favor of him getting playing time over Monroe, rather than Granderson (by moving Granderson to a corner OF slot), but Monroe’s split is almost the same as Logan’s, except that he’s higher by about 100 points higher of OPS against both lefties and righties.

The surprise came in Brandon Inge’s quite severe split. He’s not Nook Logan-awful against right-handers, but he’s not anything like good, either. Now, using a 3-year split means that that number also uses his last year of putrid hitting back when he wore the tools of ignorance, but 2003 (when he was injured for some time and got far fewer at-bats than 2004 or 2005) accounted for just 27% of his at-bats against lefties and 23% of his at-bats against righties in this exercise, as opposed to the expectation of about 33%. Now, surely, Inge’s defense at the hot corner (which, by all accounts and many fancy sabermetric measurements, is quite good) must count for something, but getting Inge some pine time in favor of Dmitri at 3B surely looks better in this light, doesn’t it?

It’s obvious that Dave Dombrowski has become Rob Parker’s personal whipping boy. When I saw the link on the Detroit News’ Tigers page today with the headline “Dombrowski has failed”, I had no doubt that the column was written by Parker. In today’s column (which I refuse to provide a link to and strongly encourage you not to click on), he makes the following (typically) specious arguments:

The Jeff Weaver trade stinks, because Weaver is “clearly” a better pitcher than Jeremy Bonderman (despite the fact that Weaver had to wait until the eve of Spring Training to sign a contract, because he’s clearly such a valuable commodity), Carlos Pena isn’t “an impact player” (mainly, according to the article, because his batting average has dipped 13 points in his Tiger tenure… Never mind that his OBP has dropped only 7 points and his SLG has jumped 37 points), and Franklyn German stinks. OK, so he’s right on that last one.

We overpaid for Pudge Rodriguez, Troy Percival and Magglio Ordonez. Well, duh, but how much of the fault for this is laid on Dombrowski, and how much on Ilitch? It is public knowledge that Ilitch personally assisted (glad-handing, attending a dinner, and/or actively negotiating) in all three of these contracts.

Speaking of Magglio Ordonez, he has an “oft-injured knee.” (Back here in reality, rational people realize that it’s only been injured once, but the nature of the injury was severe enough that he had to miss significant time for it.) Further, Magglio Ordonez stunk last year because his HR and RBI totals were far below what he had averaged in his healthy White Sox years. Gotta wonder how many interviews Magglio will grant to Rob Parker this year. I’m setting the early over/under at 1, and I’ll be betting the under.

“Only one Dombrowski-built team has finished over .500 – the ’97 Marlins.” Well, in order for this statement to be true, you have to believe that Dombrowski had little to do with the success of the 1990 Expos. I went and looked it up. Yeah, he didn’t have much to do with the acquisition of their hitters (Dave Martinez was the only regular that was a Dombrowski transaction), but he was responsible for the presence of Oil Can Boyd, Kevin Gross and Zane Smith in the rotation, who collectively started 78 games and logged almost 500 IP with ERA’s of 2.93, 3.42 and 3.23, respectively (league-average ERA was 3.79), but a win-loss record of 25-25 (I include the won-loss record for Mr. Parker’s benefit, as that is probably all he would look at, anyways). In the bullpen were Dombrowski Rule V pick Bill Sampen, Steve Frey (over from the Mets in a trade), and free agent pick-ups Dale Mohorcic and Dave Schmidt, who collectively accounted for another approximately 250 IP, with ERA’s of 2.99, 2.10, 3.23 and 4.31, respectively. They accounted for 24 wins against 14 losses and 26 of the team’s 50 saves. In other words, Dombrowski’s pitching acquisitions accounted for over 50% of the team’s innings pitched, most of those quality innings.

Now, do I think the Tigers have a great season to look forward to? Not necessarily. We’re in a tough division, the other teams in our division are only getting better, and we have a recent history of playing poorly against them, and we have an unbalanced schedule staring us in the face. Plus, most of the improvement that the Tigers are looking for is basically an improvement by guys we already have. In some cases, we’re looking for performance improvements, and in others, we’re just looking for the player to stay healthy the whole year.

I’m not saying Dombrowski is some kind of a god and should be above criticism. On the other hand, the fact that Rob Parker actually has a say in the annual Hall of Fame balloting makes me ill, because he just clearly doesn’t get it.

Parker closes his column with this:

“So, when will Dombrowski’s team finally win?

‘I think we’re in a spot where we have to start producing on the field and win some ballgames,’ he said.

If not, Dombrowski should be shown the door.”

Therefore, I close with this thought:

If Rob Parker continues to have merely a passing acquaintance with reality in his baseball columns, he should not be allowed to write them any more.

OK, so here’s my reaction to the Ilitch AP interview, sprinkled in with some thoughts I was already having about the Tigers’ off-season so far:

You see, I recalled a Jayson Stark article I read earlier in the off-season. Now, why was I thinking about an article that focuses on the Dodgers? Because of the quote of new Dodgers GM Ned Colletti that is highlighted in a separate block:

“If I wanted to fix things and have half a farm system, I could have done that yesterday. But that’s not the plan. The plan is to be better and still hold the course, to develop and win at the same time. That’s probably the hardest thing to do in baseball – develop and win at the same time. But that’s what we’re trying to do.”

It occurred to me that among the positives of the twin signings of nearly elderly free agent pitchers Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers was that we didn’t have to give up any draft picks as compensation for either of them. In the case of Rogers, the Rangers were contractually obligated to not offer him arbitration, and one wonders if Dombrowski still has enough contacts in the Marlins organization to at least have a hunch that they would decline to offer arbitration to Jones, thus eliminating the concern of losing draft picks (word around baseball is that the Marlins declined to offer Jones arbitration because they don’t feel they will be able to afford to pay for more high draft picks than their own plus those they will be getting as compensation for the Blue Jays’ signing of A.J. Burnett). This is in direct contrast to last year’s signing of Troy Percival, which continues to look worse and worse as time goes on. At least the Magglio Ordonez signing only costs us money.

Then came the Ilitch AP interview. At which point, I think, a thinking Tigers fan can begin to understand a piece of the dynamic going on in the front office of the Tigers. Ilitch is pressing Dombrowski to win, and win now. Thus, the sense of urgency as shown by the firing of Alan Trammell and hiring of the 2200+ games of managerial experience that Jim Leyland represents. Also, we can now understand a little better the signings of Ivan Rodriguez, Rondell White, Jason Johnson, and Fernando Vina in the off-season following the most embarrassing number in recent memory: 119.

So, what to make of this? I see it this way: Ilitch would like to spend like a drunken sailor and win now, throwing caution (and the future of the franchise) to the wind. On the other hand, he finally has a GM he trusts in Dombrowski, and Dombrowski has the authority to put the brakes on ill-considered moves (such as, let’s say, the proposed Granderson and Zumaya for Javier Vazquez trade, which sounds a lot like exactly the kind of idiocy that Randy Smith would have engaged in without hesitation).

So I return now to the Colletti quote. “That’s probably the hardest thing to do in baseball – develop and win at the same time. But that’s what we’re trying to do.” Well, I hate to break it to you, Ned, but you’re the new kid on the block. Get in the back of the line.

Look, I hate to call out a guy who I respect, and who I actually think does a generally decent job of being the Tigers beat writer. But today’s column, man… Some of this stuff is just head-scratching.

First off, the fascination with trading Pudge Rodriguez… I just don’t know who else will want him, frankly. With the entry of the Japanese catcher, Johjima, signed by the Mariners, that just made the off-season market for catchers that much more of a buyer’s market. Certainly Henning, as the beat writer, is closer to the team than I and has a better feel for how serious the “trade Pudge” movement might be, but I just don’t see it. Not unless we’re willing to take on someone else’s problem contract, and we’ve already got plenty of those, thanks (not to mention we’re probably considering right now one or two more). I won’t even go into the severe hitting problems Brandon Inge has when wearing the tools of ignorance.

Then there’s the matter of Carlos Pena… Here it is, for the last time: Pena is arbitration-eligible this off-season, as he was last off-season. His salary in 2005 was $2.575 million, and the Tigers, by rule of the collective bargaining agreement, cannot offer more than a 20% reduction of that (or $2.06 million) in arbitration. Any team that Pena might be traded to will be under the same restriction. The team does have a way out of this problem, though: They can refuse to offer a contract for him to the arbitrator by a certain deadline (I think this has been Dec. 20 in the past), and the player becomes a free agent, who can sign for any amount with any team. Other teams are fully aware of this situation. Any of the other 29 GM’s would be foolish to trade for Pena under these circumstances. Pena absolutely will not be traded, he will be non-tendered. Write it down. In ink.

As to the outfield situation, my personal feeling is that Curtis Granderson seems to me like the type of player who is athletic enough to handle center field in his youth, but likely will wind up in a corner outfield position. Regular Tigerblog reader Dan has already expressed his disgust for Jim Leyland’s Nook Logan fascination (and while my opinion of Nook is not as strong as Dan’s, I do agree that we shouldn’t be counting on much from him), but if the purpose of the column is to predict what the Tigers’ off-season might look like, we all have to admit to Henning’s correct assessment that the preferred outfield combination will be Granderson-Logan-Magglio.

Henning does do a good job discussing potential starting pitching candidates in case all efforts to sign or trade for starting pitching fall through. People seem to have suddenly forgotten that Wil Ledezma was supposed to have a bright future, and that he obviously hid an injury through last year’s spring training. Then again, watching him struggle through 10 horrific starts will easily obscure that kind of thing in one’s memory.

Then there’s Roman Colon, who had a fantastic 3.27 ERA as a starter in ’05. That’s better than his distant cousin (OK, I don’t believe there is any relation, actually) Bartolo Colon.

And, of course, we are all aware of the very bright future that Justin Verlander represents.

But, still, that Carlos Pena thing just bothered me. There is zero chance of him being traded before the non-tender deadline. Absolute zero.

I mentioned it several times… Something about the 2005 White Sox reminded me of the 1984 Tigers. Regular Tigerblog reader Dan, whose hatred of all things White Sock is both obvious and quite laudable from this Tiger fan’s perspective, disagreed at least to some extent, and I think he has some valid points. But I think I have found what it is that brought those ’84 Tigers to mind: Win pattern. The Tigers had that great 35-5 start, a statistic that no Tiger fan will forget. Hell, I even remembered when the Braves set a record in 1997 for the most wins in April with 19… But they were 19-6, and I recalled those beloved ’84 Tigers finishing April at 18-2. Off the top of my head. Without looking it up. 18-2 beats the hell out of 19-6, but I have now digressed from the topic at hand. No, the White Sox didn’t race out to a 35-5 start. Indeed, they weren’t 10 games over .500 until 14-4, weren’t 20 games over until 39-19, and didn’t reach 30 games over until 56-26 on July 5th. But still, they had a pretty good start and jumped out to a big lead in the AL Central Division right from the beginning. Then, as the “dog days” portion of the season approached, they went through a period of downright mediocre performances, including an astounding 12-16 record in the month of August (the Tigers of ’84 slipped some in August, too, though they squeaked out of the month with an above-.500 mark of 16-15). But as the end of the season approached, the White Sox seemed like they flipped the switch. Their last 5 series went like this: Took 2 of 3 in Minnesota, dropped 2 of 3 at home to Cleveland, won 3 of 4 at home against the Twins, dropped the first 2 and won the last 2 in their 4-game split in Comerica, then swept the final 3 games in Cleveland (despite the games being important to the Indians, and not so much to the Sox), an overall mark of 11-6. The ’84 Tigers in their last 5 series? Took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays at home, swept the Brewers at home (clinched the AL East during this series), took 2 of 3 from the Yankees at home, won 2 of 3 in Milwaukee, and split a 4-game year-ender in Yankee Stadium, for an 11-7 finish. We all know about the White Sox’s 11-1 record in the playoffs, much like the 7-1 record the Tigers compiled in their post-season.

But that’s a big pile of words… Let’s have ourselves a picture, shall we?

That shows it pretty clear… Most of the ascents align with each other quite well, as do the periods of stability (stretch of near-.500 baseball), with the exception of the White Sox tailspin toward the end there. Then I got to wondering about putting some other teams on there, just as a contrast, to show that other playoff teams from other years had dissimilar patterns. In other words, why other teams have not reminded us of the ’84 Tigers. At first, I wanted the last team from each league with a better record than the 104 wins of the ’84 Tigers, then I went for the last team to finish between 99 wins (’05 White Sox) and 104 (’84 Tigers). I came up with this chart:

Shows pretty clearly that the ’01 Mariners just plain never had a patch of mediocrity, and that the ’04 Cardinals and ’04 Yankees had their patches of mediocrity, but in an entirely different part of the year from where the ’84 Tigers and ’05 White Sox had theirs.

The final tallies are in, and Ivan Rodriguez finished the season with 504 at-bats. And 11 walks. According to Sean Lehman’s database, just 3 men have had seasons of more at-bats with exactly 11 walks:

Buck Weaver’s 1919 season for the White Sox, 571 at-bats;
Tommy Corcoran’s 1902 season for the Reds, 538 at-bats; and
Ozzie Guillen’s 1991 season for the White Sox, 524 at-bats. Yes, that Ozzie Guillen.

And there have only been 12 other seasons of even fewer walks in more at-bats than the year that Pudge threw up on the ol’ stat sheet:

1950, 10 walks, 525 at-bats, Don Mueller, outfielder for the New York Giants
1917, 10 walks, 532 at-bats, Dave Robertson, also an outfielder for the New York Giants
1914, 10 walks, 533 at-bats, John Leary, 1st baseman for the St. Louis Browns
1907, 10 walks, 561 at-bats, Hobe Ferris, 2nd baseman for the Boston Red Sox
1903, 10 walks, 559 at-bats, Lave Cross, 3rd baseman for the Philadelphia Athletics
1903, 10 walks, 548 at-bats, Charlie Carr, 1st baseman for the Detroit Tigers

1966, 9 walks, 541 at-bats, Tito Fuentes, shortstop/2nd baseman for the San Francisco Giants
1949, 9 walks, 575 at-bats, Virgil Stallcup, shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds
1912, 9 walks, 523 at-bats, Buck Weaver, shortstop for the Chicago White Sox

1901, 7 walks, 548 at-bats, Candy LaChance, 1st baseman for the Cleveland Blues

1915, 6 walks, 562 at-bats, Art Fletcher, shortstop for the New York Giants
1909, 6 walks, 565 at-bats, George Stovall, 1st baseman for the Cleveland Naps

For what it’s worth, Ozzie Guillen also walked just 10 times in 499 at-bats in 1996, just missing qualifying for this group a second time (note that with that one more at-bat that year, he would have been the second player – both of them career White Sox – to turn the trick twice in his career).

So, no, he didn’t quite re-write the history books… But he’s in an elite group of 15 men (in 16 seasons) with 11 or fewer walks, but more than 500 at-bats (since 1900). Who is Leyland’s preferred hitting coach again?

A four-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals. It just doesn’t get any lower than this. Then, suddenly… It hit me. The appropriate strategy for the final 10 games of the season: Draft position. Since the powers that be have decided that the first overall pick will alternate between leagues, it’s a close race between the Pirates and the Rockies for first overall (with the Pirates 1½ game “ahead” currently). On the American League side, it is, unfortunately, already mathematically impossible for the Royals to finish ahead of us. However, the Mariners (our next opponent, no less!) are just 1½ games “ahead” of us and we only need to make up 3½ games on Tampa Bay to pass them by. On the NL side, we’ll need to make sure to out-lose the Dodgers, who currently have exactly the same record as we do, and the Rockies are way out front – we need to make up 4 games to pass them (or 5½ games to pass the Pirates, should the Rox find their way to the first overall pick). So, that’s the new plan… There’s 10 games left, let’s lose ’em all, and we could wind up as high as the third overall pick in next summer’s draft.

How will we lose them all? I know, let’s shut down Jeremy Bonderman for the year. Then, let’s feature (in just 10 games, remember) at least two starts each from Sean Douglass, Matt Ginter, and Jason Grilli (and shutting down Bonderman nearly assures this). Hey, while we’re at it, let’s take a look at that lineup, huh?

Catcher: Well, Ivan Rodriguez says he wants to clear his head (see lower half of the Tigers Corner column at the “Bonderman being shut down” link above)? Fine. Let’s start Vance Wilson for the last 10 games. And, while we’re at it, let’s reward Max St. Pierre for his very nice year down in AA… by getting him acclimated to his future career role: backup catcher.

1st Base: You know what? For developmental value, I’m in favor of going ahead and letting Chris Shelton finish out the year here.

2nd Base: Hey, Placido, nice year. Here’s your reward: A nice 10-game rest. Save some for next year, buddy. Somebody get Kevin Hooper on the blower and tell him to grab the next plane to Detroit.

3rd Base: Nice year for Brandon Inge here… Let’s reward him with some time off, too. John McDonald gets the nod for the final 10 contests.

Shortstop: Hey, Carlos, nice job working so hard to rehab that knee… But I tell you what, buddy… Pace yourself. Omar Infante can hold down the fort… It’s only 10 games, after all.

Left Field: Well, Craig, congratulations are in order. You’re leading the team in RBIs, and no one else is even within shouting distance. So what say you shut it down for the last 10 games, and we’ll see if the real Nook Logan will please stand up.

Center Field: Now, you might be asking yourself… Why Logan in left field? Because, like Shelton at first base, we’ll be employing Curtis Granderson in center for developmental purposes.

Right Field: Magglio, buddy, really… We believe you about the knee thing. Even if the Chicago media types don’t. And the sports hernia, well… Stuff happens. But, honestly, let’s not risk anything, huh? Save it for next year. In the meantime, we’ll be putting the strikeout-tastic Marcus Thames in right, because he’s probably got a family to feed and all, and who knows, maybe some other team will see something they like and pick him up for next year. Let’s give him a chance.

Designated Hitter: Wow, Dmitri, you really weren’t kidding when you said playing left field wasn’t really a good thing for you, long term… So, yeah, take a seat, pal. No problem. It’s really better for us to bat our pitchers from here on out, anyways. Warm ’em up for next year’s interleague play, that’s the ticket.

Oh, yeah, and as long as we’re working completely on next year, let’s get Cameron Maybin inked. Way to go, Double-D… Now let’s just work on losing these last 10 games.

Hoping to avoid ignominy and multiple kinds of records for avoiding walks, Ivan Rodriguez has, just moments ago, entered the double digits for walks on the year, drawing a leadoff walk in the top of the 2nd inning from Jimmy Gobble. This, along with drawing a similar leadoff walk in the top of the 2nd of yesterday’s first game off of Royals rookie J.P. Howell, has given Pudge a grand total of 10 walks on the season. Congratulations are in order.

First of all, let’s congratulate Ivan Rodriguez on his 8th walk of the season last night, whereupon he came around to score on Curtis Granderson’s inside-the-park home run. But let’s also appreciate the strange look about Pudge’s stat line on the year. Just as one aspect of it, he’s got quite a good chance to finish the season with double-digit homers (he’s already got this one) and single-digit walks (needs to avoid getting 2 more Annie Oakleys in the Tigers’ last 17 games).

Only 24 men in 25 such seasons (Todd Greene is the only double-dipper) have ever accomplished the feat. Sad to tell, but it was a Tiger that broke the mold: Steve Souchock in 1953 smoked 11 bombs, but walked just 8 times. It happened twice in the ’60’s (Gene Green of the ’62 Indians (11 HR/8 walks) and Willie Smith of the ’64 L.A. Angels (11/8)… right after the Tigers had traded him in the previous off-season), then only once in the ’70’s (Andres Mora of the ’77 Orioles (13/5)). It exploded to 6 occurrences in the ’80’s, starting with the strike-shortened season of Gary Gray of the ’81 Mariners (13/4) and the ’84 seasons of Jim Presley, Mariners (10/6) and Bill Schroeder, Brewers (14/8). It was all the way to 1988 before a National Leaguer turned the trick, but then there were actually 2 of them in that year – Ricky Jordan of the Phillies (11/7), and Bo Diaz’s 10 HR and 7 walks for the Reds that year, a feat made even more memorable when considering that 4 of his walks were intentional (likely he batted #8 in front of the pitcher quite a bit). Tony Armas completed the ’80’s with 11 HR and 7 walks for the ’89 California Angels. The ’90’s were all the more productive, featuring 10 such seasons. Mel Hall started it all in 1990 for the Yankees with 12 HR and just 6 walks (and, though he nearly matched Willie Smith’s high of 118 games with 113, he did get 360 at-bats on the year compared to Smith’s 359). It’s a little hard to remember Andre Dawson as a Red Sock, but he managed to turn this trick in the strike-shortened ’94 season with the Sawx (16/9). Sandy Alomar, Jr. pulled it off in the strike-shortened ’95 season with the Indians (10/7), and ’96 saw two more players do it: Rex Hudler for the Angels (16/9) and Jermaine Dye for the Braves (12/8). 1998 was the real bumper crop, with four players turning the trick: Roberto Kelly for the Rangers (16/8), Jeff Abbott for the White Sox (12/9), Richie Sexson for the Indians (11/6), and Shane Spencer’s amazing debut with the Yankees (10/5). Spencer turned the trick in the fewest at-bats ever, needing only 67. In 1999, the pace slowed to a crawl by comparison, with only Craig Paquette (10/6) of the Cardinals qualifying. 2000 returned to multiple entries, with Shawon Dunston of the Cardinals (12/6) and Fernando Seguignol of the Expos (12/6). Nobody did it in 2001, so naturally there were three qualifiers in 2002: Karim Garcia for the Indians (16/6), Joe Crede of the White Sox (12/8), and Todd Greene of the Rangers (10/2). Oddly enough, Todd Greene duplicated his numbers in both categories exactly the next year, becoming the first man ever to do it twice (much less twice in a row), and also the last man to pull off the feat. Until this year, that is.

Now, among that group, the leader in games is Willie Smith with 118 (Pudge currently has 119), as mentioned Mel Hall leads with 360 at-bats (Pudge is at 469), Rex Hudler leads with 60 runs scored (Pudge has 70), Willie Smith leads with 108 hits (Pudge 134), most doubles goes to Mel Hall with 23 (Pudge 31), most triples is Willie Smith with 6 (Pudge 5), most home runs goes to Andre Dawson, Karim Garcia and Roberto Kelly with 16 (Pudge 14), most RBI is Karim Garcia with 52 (Pudge 49), most stolen bases is Rex Hudler with 14 (Pudge 7), most strikeouts is Jermaine Dye with 67 (Pudge 85), most intentional walks is Bo Diaz with 4 (Pudge 2), most HBP is Andre Dawson with 4 (Pudge 2), most sacrifices goes to Bill Schroeder, Sandy Alomar, Jr. and Shawon Dunston with 4 (Pudge 1), most sacrifice flies is Jeff Abbott with 5 (Pudge 7), most GIDP is Bo Diaz with 16 (Pudge 18), highest batting average is Shane Spencer at .373 (Pudge .286), highest OBP is also Spencer at .411 (Pudge .296), and Spencer also leads in SLG at .910 (Pudge .463).

So, let’s see…. Among 18 categories (15 of them counting stats), Pudge already holds the lead in 8 of them. None of his leads are in the average categories, so you really could say he’s got 8 of 15… And he’s got a real shot at a few more, notably HRs and RBIs (and with more games to play in Comerica Park, he could at least tie for triples, too). Of course, he has the lead in most of those categories mainly due to his commanding lead in just two – games and at-bats. What we are witnessing with Pudge’s strange batting line for the 2005 season is yet another baseball first… (Drum roll, please.) Unless he manages to screw up and walk two more times in the last 17 games, Ivan Rodriguez will be the first ever full-time player with single-digit walks and double-digit home runs.

Personally, I’d be willing to overlook this as an anomaly, because while Pudge has never been what you might call prodigious in the walk department, this season would represent a new low for him (indeed, as has been covered elsewhere, it will be very near to a historic low for all of baseball history). However, if he turns in another performance anywhere close to this next year, it might be time for a new nickname: Ivan “I Hate Walks” Rodriguez.

Another September without really meaningful games. I mean, for those of us keeping track, I suppose there was some thought last September that the Tigers could break the record for the biggest one-season improvement of all time, but even that disappeared pretty quickly.

Now that the pitching is seemingly falling apart before our very eyes, and with the knowledge that a 63-68 record is already under our belt, I’m interested in what the Tigerblog community thinks will happen for the remainder…

There are 7 games left against the White Sox, who we just can’t seem to beat under almost any circumstances… 4 games left against the Indians, 6 left with the Royals, a 4-gamer in Anaheim against LA (if you know what I mean), and 3 back at home against the Mariners… Plus 6 against the Twins, including the final 3 in the Metrodome.

Our magic number for avoiding the cellar is 11, so that is all but sewed up, but I’m wondering… Can we put on a push and pass the Twins? We’re 6 games back with 31 to play… It’s not impossible. Reply with a comment to this entry, give your estimate of number of wins and whether we finish 3rd or 4th (or 2nd, if you’re wildly optimistic).

By the way…. Strange 4-game series coming up with the Indians, with the first 3 in Comerica and the last game at Jacobs Field… I doubt the players would go for it, but I wonder if MLB has ever thought about enhancing close geographical rivals by scheduling a 4-game series between 2 teams with the games alternating cities each day. Might work with the Tigers/Indians.

I haven’t made a contribution here in a while, somewhat because life has been a touch too much in the way, and moreso because it’s just been too depressing to contemplate Tiger thoughts since the collapse that began with the trip west right before the trading deadline.

I’m firmly in the Alan Trammell camp. Would I have left in Nate Robertson a couple games back? Yeah, I probably would have. But a manager has to manage the egos on the team, too. My dad hated Sparky Anderson‘s “captain hook routine”, which is what he called it when Sparky would pull a pitcher who was throwing perfectly fine for a fresh arm out of the bullpen. Even in Game 5 of the ’84 Series, he wondered why Sparky wouldn’t trust Dan Petry past 3-2/3 innings, after all, the Pads had only tied the game… But then, once you bring on Bill Scherrer, why, oh why, do you replace him with Aurelio Lopez after one lousy single among his 3 outs? Then you trust Senor Smoke for 2-1/3 perfect innings — that’s 7 up, 7 down — but you bring on Willie Hernandez for the final 2 innings? Let’s just say that the homer Willie gave up to Kurt Bevacqua to draw the Pads to just a 5-4 deficit was not greeted well. I wasn’t as vocally anti-Sparky as my dad was, because I took the big picture into account. You can’t argue with results. Ask my dad about the Willie Hernandez-for-Aurelio Lopez move today, he’ll get a bulging vein in his forehead over it, I guarantee you.

Well, I spent far more words on that than I intended, but part of that was the nice surprise of finding the fantastic play-by-play of Game 5 of the ’84 World Series available from the fine folks of retrosheet.

What I really wanted to comment on today was the demise of Rondell White to a separated left shoulder. I had noticed several times already that Rondell was among the league leaders in batting average, a stat that surprised me. I had not been under the impression that Rondell was the 8th-best hitter in the AL. Then I set out to create a chart that might show why I had that perception. But let me explain something first. Bill James sometimes talked about how much a player’s batting average represented his total offensive output, which got me to thinking about Rondell’s batting average versus his OPS. Now, remember that OPS consists of batting average twice plus a player’s walk rate, plus his extra bases (or isolated power). For instance, let’s say it’s Opening Day, and the top 4 players of your lineup come up 5 times each. If player A goes 3-for-5 on all singles, he has a 600 batting average, 600 OBP and a 600 SLG, for a 1200 OPS. If player B goes 2-for-5 with a home run, he has a 400 batting average, a 400 OBP and a 1000 SLG for a 1400 OPS. If player C goes 2-for-4, both singles, plus a walk, he has a 500 batting average, a 600 OBP and a 500 SLG for an OPS of 1100. If player D goes 1-for-3 with a triple and 2 walks, he has a 333 batting average, a 600 OBP and a 1000 SLG for an OPS of 1600. In that situation, the man with the worst batting average has the team lead, rater surprisingly to some, in OPS. However, the guy who just had 3 singles isn’t so shabby, either, because those singles count toward both his OBP and his SLG, so they are essentially counted twice. Anyways, that is how I came up with the following chart (of the top 25 batting averages in the American League), with the final stat being the percentage of the player’s OPS coming from his batting average (for the formula-friendly, that’s 2xBA divided by OPS).

1. J. Damon – BA 332, OPS 852 – 77.9%
2. P. Polanco – BA 329, OPS 817 – 80.5%
3. M. Young – BA 327, OPS 886 – 73.8%
4. V. Guerrero – BA 326, OPS 975 – 66.9%
5. B. Roberts – BA 319, OPS 918 – 69.5%
6. M. Tejada – BA 317, OPS 911 – 69.6%
7. A. Rodriguez – BA 314, OPS 1013 – 62.0%
8. R. White – BA 313, OPS 836 – 74.9%
9. T. Hafner – BA 309, OPS 974 – 63.4%
10. I. Suzuki – BA 308, OPS 794 – 77.6%
11. J. Varitek – BA 305, OPS 939 – 64.5%
12. D. Jeter – BA 304, OPS 831 – 73.2%
13. D. Ortiz – BA 303, OPS 993 – 61.0%
14. J. Peralta – BA 302, OPS 906 – 66.7%
15. G. Sheffield – BA 302, OPS 925 – 65.3%
16. S. Hillenbrand – BA 301, OPS 835 – 72.1%
17. H. Matsui – BA 299, OPS 861 – 69.5%
18. M. Sweeney – BA 297, OPS 864 – 68.8%
19. J. Mauer – BA 297, OPS 805 – 73.8%
20. C. Crisp – BA 296, OPS 788 – 75.1%
21. R. Ibanez – BA 295, OPS 819 – 72.0%
22. J. Lugo – BA 295, OPS 745 – 79.1%
23. B. Mueller – BA 294, OPS 809 – 72.7%
24. I. Rodriguez – BA 290, OPS 752 – 77.1%
25. D. DeJesus – BA 290, OPS 791 – 73.3%

There you have it, Placido Polanco has the least offensive contribution outside of his batting average among this group, and since this is the top 25 batting averages in the league, he’s likely also the leader in that category league-wide. Other players coming in at worse than White are Ichiro, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo and the Tigers’ own Ivan Rodriguez, mainly due to his precipitous drop-off in the walk department (just 6 in 386 at-bats… far worse than his career average). Or, in other words, the Tigers are owners of (quite likely… again, I haven’t calculated these for all American Leaguers) 3 of the top 6 emptiest batting averages in the league. Small wonder why we’re having problems scoring runs.

It looks like the Placido Polanco deal is a straight $4.6 million every year for the next four years. There’s no doubt that Polanco is a quality player. He’s a career .299 hitter and has absolutely tore things up since we traded Ugueth Urbina for him. More importantly, he’s done it at Comerica Park. Through 53 at bats, he’s put up an impressive .358/.407/.585. The problem of course is the sample size. 53 at bats is hardly telling.

He’s also an above average fielder. Last he posted 19 Fielding Runs Above Average and his fielding has accounted for more then half of his career 34.2 WARP.

So what’s the problem? One has to do with an established trend and the other has to do with more of a personal pet peeve. The established trend is that Polanco is going to be 30 in October, and second basemen seem to decline faster then players at just about ever other position (catcher being the exception). Billfer touched on this over at Detroit Tigers Weblog, but it bears repeating. Once again I think we signed a guy for a little to long into the years where he has a good chance of having declining skills.

The second problem is that I think they gave up on Omar Infante too soon. Infante had a great season last year, and although he struggled at the beginning of this year, I think it would have done the Tigers well to see what he could do next year. We’re not going to the playoffs, so there’s no harm. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Infante outplaying (for another team) Polanco two years from now.

I think a two year contract with an option for a third would have been more prudent. It just always seem like the Tigers sign players to long deals and catch them in their declining years. Bobby Higginson is a great example, and it looks like Ivan Rodriguez is becoming one. I know he’s hitting .299, but it’s a little hollow. His .737 OPS is his worst since 1993, the last season the Tigers had a winning record. And I also have a feeling we’ll be saying the same thing about Magglio Ordonez.

So while I think it’s a good short term signing, I just don’t see the long term benefit. My two cents of course.

I am apalled by the performance of the Tigers in their recent six game road trip against the Mariner’s and A’s. They were coming off two very successful series against the White Sox and Twin’s and with the healthy return of Placido Polanco were about to feature their best and most ideal lineup for the first time this season. Yet, to use an euphemism, they pissed down their legs.

How else can you analyze the run of recent poor performances by their starting pitching? Or their fielding and baserunning errors? Or the complete lack of timely hitting? The team constantly gets shut down by pitchers like Kirk Saarloos, Shawn Estes and Scott Elarton because it has an absolute inability to refrain from swinging aggressively at pitches out of the strike zone, or to use Jim Price’s term, “pitcher’s pitches”.

The recent road trip doesn’t bode well for the future of Alan Trammell as the team’s manger in my opinion. The team should have been highly motivated and competitive for the duration of it’s west coast journey, but yet Trammell was unable to yield respectable results from their increasingly aging and high- priced roster. Trammell promised upon his hiring that the team would play solid baseball and throughout his tenure the team has been rife with poor execution on the base paths, poor situational hitting, fielding errors and a general inability to build upon their successes on the field.

Even if the team ends the season with a better record than last year, is it really a victory? Mediocrity would seem to be the worst curse to bestow upon a rebuilding franchise. It would be better for the team’s long term development, in my opinion, that they sacrifice the season (and a marginal record) to continue to advance the development of young players like Chris Shelton, Curtis Granderson, Roman Colon, Fernando Rodney, and Justin Verlander. This prospect probably would disappoint many fans, much like the trade of Kyle Farnsworth. I don’t blame the front office for waving the white flag at this point. The team could have either Kyle or Jeff Farnsworth as it’s closer and would make no real difference at this point. The last thing I want to see is a lineup filled with Dmitri Young, Rondell White, Jason Johnson and anybody else who no longer remains in the team’s long term plans playing in September as the team languishes to keep a .500 record. To me, neither the team or it’s loyal fans benefit from that ominous scenario.

I have been meaning to get around to concluding my series on why I thought the Tigers would stand pat at the trade deadline this year, and I had already covered the position players in two previous columns. But then work and annoying Yankee fans got in the way, and now I’m going to scrabble together a quick-and-dirty on the pitching staff, which I had previously hoped to do in two separate installments, the starters and the bullpen. Anyway, here we go:

Rotation (alphabetical order):

Jeremy Bonderman: Emerging ace, 22 years old, and not eligible for arbitration until Spring Training 2007. Not going anywhere.

Sean Douglass: Called up from Toledo after Wil Ledezma flamed out of the starting rotation, he’s been surprisingly effective in his starts, but I doubt he could bring us more than a fringe prospect or two… And who would replace him in the rotation as the Tigers try to roar to the front from the rear position of what seems like an ever-tighter cluster of teams in contention for the wild card?

Jason Johnson: Now, here’s a guy that could definitely be tradeable. Contract is up at the end of the year, he has learned the sinker under the tutelage of pitching coach Bob Cluck, and his opponents’ OPS is currently at 736 (for perspective, Mike Mussina is at 742 and Brad Radke is at 753). On the other hand, he may display some loyalty to the Tigers in the off-season because of Cluck and his improvement while he has been here. And then there is that thing I mentioned at the end of the Douglass paragraph, and all of the quotes in the papers coming from the team indicate we’re going for it with the crew we’ve got.

Mike Maroth: Soft-tossing lefty who does get battered around a bit (790 opponents’ OPS), but has games where he looks very Jamie Moyer-esque. Still, unless a contender is absolutely desperate for a lefty, I don’t think he’ll attract very much interest, plus he is eligible for arbitration for the first time this coming off-season, so he’ll be pretty affordable for next year. And I mention here again the desire of Tigers brass to see how far the current group can take us. Mike might be more of a trade target in the off-season than before the deadline.

Nate Robertson: It might surprise some to find that Nate’s opponents’ OPS is actually better than Bonderman’s (OK, just 704 to 705), but Nate does seem capable of dominating at times, despite the occasional one-pitch ejection appearance. And with one full year, one half-year, and a 6-game stint with the Marlins under his belt, he won’t be eligible for arbitration this coming year, but likely will be for Spring Training 2007. Though he is 28 years old, it’s probably worth it to keep him around and see if Cluck can help him to continue to improve his consistency.

Bullpen (alphabetical order):

Vic Darensbourg: Situational lefty recently called up from Toledo… But with the hideous numbers put up by Doug Creek (opponents’ OPS of 964), I have to wonder if a switch to Darensbourg earlier in the season wouldn’t have increased his trade value. One type of player that seems to be overvalued at the trade deadline is a left-handed reliever, and I think the Tigers blew it by letting Darensbourg stay down on the farm too long, thus unable to show his stuff at the big league level in time to attract some trade attention.

Craig Dingman: Also called up from Toledo not too long ago, Dingman has posted an impressive opponents’ OPS of 269 thus far, though that is only in 6 IP. He also earned an emergency save against the Twins when Kyle Farnsworth couldn’t find the plate one night. I don’t think Dingman will be garnering much attention on the trade market, but one never knows. Relievers always seem to be in short supply. Not to mention that Dingman is exactly the kind of player that could easily clear waivers and be traded some time in August.

Kyle Farnsworth: Newly minted closer since the disabling of Troy Percival, Kyle has impressed with his triple-digit fastball, which has led to an equally impressive 11.60 K/9IP and an opponents’ OPS of just 519, which would be the best season of his career if he can keep it up. Farnsworth is eligible for free agency after the season, and so far has indicated two things: (1) he likes it in Detroit, and (2) he’s going to wait it out and “see what happens” (generally this is code for seeing what he can get as a free agent on the market). Still, to trade away our current closer who is throwing lights-out… That just ain’t happening.

Franklyn German: Once thought of as a closer-of-the-future, German has suddenly been vaulted into a long relief role, as evidenced by his insertion when Robertson was ejected on the first pitch of the game down in Tampa. His big problem in the past has been the bases on balls, and at 20 in 38-1/3 innings so far, he still isn’t exactly stingy in that department, but has improved quite a bit. Let’s not forget that he likely won’t be eligible for arbitration this coming off-season, though it could be close. Again, the Dingman comments apply equally here as to his trade-ability.

Fernando Rodney: Coming back from Tommy John surgery and having spent the first half of the season resting and rehabbing in the minors, Rodney vaulted himself into the trusted “setup man” role (8th inning of a close game with the lead) with an outstanding 3-inning outing in the Nate Robertson ejection game down in Tampa. He currently has 11.17 K’s per 9 IP, but kind of average numbers otherwise (727 opponents’ OPS). Still, as to tradeability, he also will not be eligible for arbitration this upcoming off-season, and the Tigers like what they have in him, so I’d be utterly shocked if he was moved.

Chris Spurling: Everyone will want to focus on his horrible outing in Chicago that cost us a 3-game sweep of the hated White Sox, but even with that outing in his overall stats, his numbers look decent to average for a reliever (3.93 K/9IP is low, but a 772 opponents’ OPS isn’t horrible, especially considering that his one horrible outing probably is having a significant impact on that number). The Dingman and German comments on tradeability apply pretty well to Spurling, I would think.

Jamie Walker: Despite having a pretty good year (2.38 ERA, 575 opponents’ OPS, but a near-career low 5.03 K/9IP), Jamie is 34 years old. He has a very reasonable salary and is a left-handed reliever. While I believe the Tigers will hold onto him, he might fetch more than one would otherwise think he could. In a pinch, we might bring up Wil Ledezma for left-handed relief if someone bowls us over in an offer for Walker. Still, I doubt it will happen.

July 20, 1935 Tigers 6, Red Sox 5 (52-33)

The Tigers almost gave this game away as they saw 4-0 and 5-1 leads disappear. General Crowder gave up three runs in the seventh and then reliever Elden Auker allowed the tying run to cross the plate in the eighth.

Fortunately, the Tiger’s bats had one more run in them. Charlie Gehringer singled, stole second and then scored the winning run on Goose Goslin’s single. It was Goslin’s second RBI of the game and Gerhinger’s second run scored of the game.

The win put the Tigers into a tie for first in the standings. They did trail the Yankees by a few percentage points because the Tigers had both won three and lost three more games then the Yankees.

Now, for the second in a mini-series. Personally, I think the Tigers braintrust should be in a “selective sell mode” at the trading deadline this year, by which I mean that we should be actively shopping some of our older, more established players, but holding on to a good portion of the core of the team – young players who we won’t trade away, almost no matter the return (but only almost… There is always the possibility of being “bowled over”). The problem is that a number of the older players, particularly guys nearing the end of their contracts, just aren’t performing up to expectations, and will therefore not bring much in return. So my personal prediction is that the team will mostly stand pat. Last week, I took a look around the Tiger infield, and the comments wound up mostly talking about outfielders. I’ll try to do justice to that discussion in today’s column:

Starters:

LF: Rondell White – Now, here is Exhibit A of Veterans That Should Be Traded. He is entering the final few months of a very reasonable contract (2 years/$6 million), and is considered a “professional hitter” by traditional baseball minds. Of course, what that term usually means is a guy who mostly hits, and probably is at least somewhat lacking in the plate discipline area of his game. I think I have mentioned that I recently unearthed my 1983 Bill James Baseball Abstract, and one of Bill James’ recurring lines was what percent of a hitter’s value is attributable to his batting average (in other words, stripped of all extra bases on his hits and also stripped of walks, hit by pitches and other minor events that work into OBP). Rondell is currently at a merely “OK” 5.64 Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC27), and if I’m doing my math correctly, 3.68 of that (or 65%) is coming straight from his .307 batting average. That 65% figure isn’t ridiculously high, but it isn’t low by any stretch of the imagination (for an extreme comparison, Barry Bonds in 2002 – that’s the year his batting average peaked at .370 – created 19.17 runs per 27 outs, and 5.86 of that was attributable to his batting average, or 31%). In addition to this, Rondell now has an aching shoulder. If he stays with the team through the end of the year, this may actually help us in that he will take away playing time and plate appearances from the horrifically slumping Dmitri Young by dragging DH duties away from him. While I would love to see what we could get from a trade of Rondell, if he saves us having to carry Dmitri on the roster for another year, it will have been well worth it.

CF: Nook Logan – While Nook’s 3.98 RC27 are anemic and possibly bordering on pathetic, he is one of the fastest players in baseball. Tigers brass feels that this gives their lineup a dimension that it wouldn’t otherwise have, and the thought is that with other traditionally defense-first positions (catcher, 2nd base and shortstop) featuring players who they feel can be among the best offensive players at these positions (Ivan Rodriguez (slumping and currently 8th among AL catchers in RC27… and behind Bengie Molina, to boot), Placido Polanco (currently 2nd among AL 2nd basemen in RC27), and Carlos Guillen (currently 5th among AL shortstops in RC27), respectively), they can afford to have a defense-first Logan patrolling the middle garden. However, he has recently botched some plays and called into question his defensive skills. On the other hand, his speed makes up for whatever mistakes he will make more often than not. And let’s not forget, for purposes of this column, that he debuted last year and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until at least after 2006. We’re not likely to be trading him until we at least get a better feel for his capabilities.

RF: Magglio Ordonez – We can argue this free agent signing some more, and I’m certain we will come 2011 and 2012, when we will likely still be paying Magglio like he’s a near-MVP caliber player, whether he actually is or not. Currently, he is still shaking off the rust from his lengthy lay-offs due to knee surgeries and a hernia surgery, and he’s already up to 6.21 RC27, 3rd-best on the team behind Chris Shelton (8.18) and Polanco (6.71). Again, for purposes of this column, the main item is that Magglio isn’t getting traded anywhere anytime soon.

Corner OF/Dabbles in CF: Craig Monroe – I’m counting him as a starter, because he wound up playing a lot of RF while Magglio was out, and he’s been getting playing time in LF now that Rondell White is having shoulder trouble. Here is a guy who is creating just 4.91 runs per 27 outs, we have a center fielder who we like much better defensively, and yet he’s still getting playing time with regularity. One wonders if we can’t attribute the offensive problems of this season largely to this fact: In RC27 among AL outfielders, Rondell is 12th, Monroe is 24th, and Nook Logan would slot in at 33rd (amazingly, that’s higher than Sammy Sosa), if he had enough times at bat to qualify. Along with Carlos Guillen not being in the lineup on an everday basis plus Dmitri Young’s prolonged slump, it’s little wonder we’re 4th-worst in the league in runs scored. Will Craig Monroe draw any interest from other teams, especially when he’s due to be arbitration-eligible for 2006? We’d be lucky if his rotting carcass drew flies at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get non-tendered (a la Robert Fick in the 2002-03 off-season) over the winter. And let’s make this clear: If Craig Monroe were a valuable commodity, he could really bring something on the trade market since his first season of free agency is still a couple of years away. Big-spending teams wouldn’t mind his arbitration-eligible-level salaries for a few years. However, smart big-spending teams aren’t interested in his level of production (or lack thereof).

Backups:

Well, there’s Dmitri Young… Who we discussed last week as a 1B/DH and whose RC27 is at a woeful 4.81 for that position… And there’s Kevin Hooper, a minor league call-up that was almost completely indefensible… But, really, it’s been those 4 guys sharing the outfield duties for the most part, with the exception of Marcus Thames and other temporary help that came up from Toledo in mostly brief stints. Speaking of which…

Minor Leaguers:

Marcus Thames, who is 28 years old, but is absolutely killing AAA pitching. That OPS is 1349. That is not a misprint. RC27 numbers are not figured specifically at Minor League Baseball’s site, but my quick-and-dirty figuring puts Thames’ RC27 at a ridiculous 18.98. For purposes of trade talk, I would say that here is a guy that a team like the Pirates or the Rockies should be clamoring for. I’m not sure of his arbitration eligibility (my “eyeball” guess is that he won’t be eligible until 2007 at least), but a low-budget team should covet a bat that is doing that in Triple-A, even if he’s a bit old to be a prospect. However, that is looking at things as if the Tigers are in full “buy” mode. At 2 games under .500 with almost 100 games under our belts and with 7 teams between us and a playoff berth, I don’t really think we should be. Look, Justin Verlander is coming up for a double-header start Saturday against the Twins, and the Tigers say he’ll be going right back down after the game. Kevin Hooper will likely go down to Toledo to make room for Verlander, and we’ll need to pluck someone else from the minors when we send Verlander right back down. I say let’s bring up Thames, plunk his name in the lineup for at least a month solid in LF (most of his slumps have been when he was asked to suffer through merely intermittent duty), have Rondell White play DH until his shoulder gets better or he’s traded, have Craig Monroe and Nook Logan share CF duties, and sit Dmitri Young on the bench for a while (with intermittent “Rondell needs a rest” DH duties until Rondell gets traded).

Curtis Granderson, who is, by comparison, 24 years old (it occurs to me now that I haven’t mentioned the ages of the others – Rondell is 33, Logan is 25, Magglio is 31 and Monroe is 28) and who the Tigers hope can handle center field duties. Let’s take a look at his Toledo stats, shall we? That’s an OPS of 876, sort of in the good-not-great category. And my quick-and-dirty of RC27 comes out to 7.12, also in the good-not-great range. In the realm of “is he up for trade bait”, I would have to say no. He is more in the category of a player that low-budget teams would be interested in if the Tigers would make a “buy veteran talent to win now” trade. Again, I don’t think we’re in that position right now.

The Tigers signing Troy Percival to a two year contract is really appearing to be a glaring mistake. At the time Dave Dombrowski signed Percival many members of the media and fans were puzzled at the signing of an aging closer, who had accrued quite an injury history, to a multi-year deal. In part, Dombrowski was justified in his decision to sign Percival with the mystery surrounding Ugueth Urbina and the unfortunate kidnapping of his mother in Venezuela. Percival provided an insurance policy if Urbina chose not to return.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, they are now stuck with Percival and his immoveable contract. It would appear that Percival has lost most of his former abilities and in all likelihood will be a permanent resident on the Disabled List for the duration of his contract until he choses to retire ala Fernando Vina. As unfortunate as this situation is, the Tigers are now finding out how viable Kyle Farnsworth is as a closing option. They also are now utilizing players like Fernando Rodney, Franklyn German and Chris Spurling in more significant situations and so far have received promising results.

Troy Percival’s opponent OPS (On Base+Slugging) was .769, next worse in the American League to Boston’s Keith Foulke’s .890 as of July 10th. Percival also was yielding 2.52 Hr/9 in his 25 innings of relief. On the other hand, Kyle Farnsworth’s performance would rank 4th in the American League with a .535 opponent OPS and he had yielded 0.24 Hr/9 as of July 10th in 37 innings. It remains to be seen whether Farnsworth has the mental makeup to thrive in the closer’s role but his performance this year is very encouraging.

In regards to the trade deadline, I hope the Tigers have the fortune to be able to move players like Dmitri Young and Rondell White. The team has regressed offensively this season. It is imperative with the lack of bonafide prospect position players in the minors that they continue to add players who can have a long term impact on the team’s development like Tiger enthusiasts are hoping for from players like Curtis Granderson, Chris Shelton and Tony Giarrantano.

« Previous Entries | Next Entries »

Powered by
WordPress

Click to advertise

http://every1bets.com