Archive for the '2011 Tigers' Category

One of my plans for 2011 is, now that I have a little more freedom of movement, to hit up a new ballpark each month.  April will probably be tough with tax deadlines that month but beginning with May, I’d like to do some short road trips.  I’m planning on visiting both the White Caps and the Loons but I’d like to maybe venture out as far as Erie and Buffalo (maybe hitting Cleveland on the way back).  Most trips will be for just one night (hit a night game in one town, check out and then hit an afternoon game in another) and they’ll be somewhat planned on the fly (my schedule with my son is month to month) but that’s the goal.

So I’m looking for suggestions.  West Michigan is a must and easy.  I’m going to visit Dow Field and the Loons in July (this one is already set).  Louisville is also in the plans.  I’m thinking of doing a Fort Wayne/Indianapolis trip and a Erie/Buffalo or Cleveland Indians trip but if you have any recommendations, let me know.  And if you live in one of those areas, drop me a line and we can catch a game.

A somewhat familiar face will be back in the Tigers minor league system this year because the team signed Timo Perez to a minor league deal.  If you’re into ancient history, Timo Perez was one of the stars for the Mets in their postseason run back in 2000.  As a rookie, Timo hit .304 and scored eight runs for the Mets in the NLCS against the Cardinals that year (although his World Series was less then newsworthy).

He played briefly for the Cardinals in 2006 but didn’t make the postseason roster for that heartbreaking World Series.  Then in 2007, he was a Tiger and in the middle of a division race, Perez hit .414 in the month of September (and the few games in October) mostly as the every day leftfielder.  He played all year in Toledo in 2008 and since then, he’s split time between playing professional ball down in Mexico and minor league ball in the Phillies and Dodgers organization.

Timo is a career .317 minor league hitter so he’s going to help out one of the Tigers affiliates, whether it’s the Hens or the SeaWolves (not sure who needs the body).

In other blast from the past news, Matt Anderson signed a minor league deal with the Phillies.  Once the Tigers closer and the top pick in the 1997 draft, Anderson was cut loose by the Tigers in 2003 and since then, he’s played in the majors only once (2005, tough season with the Rockies) and he hasn’t pitched in the minors since 2008 when he was in the White Sox organization.  Last year he was invited to spring training by the Giants but didn’t make the cut.

The Tigers inked Joel Zumaya to a one year, $1.4 million deal today and in effect, allowed the team to avoid arbitration with the hard throwing relief pitcher.  We all know Zumaya’s story.  He had a come back last year before he yielded to yet another injury and having a full season of Zumaya will go a long way towards the Tigers having a dominant bullpen like they did in 2006 when they went to the World Series.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Tigers pitch Zumaya because they now have plenty of depth in their pen.  Ryan Perry (a favorite of mine) should make some gains and to go along with Jose Valverde, they have Joaquin Benoit.  The starting pitching has some holes, but I’m liking this bullpen more and more.

That leaves Armando Galarraga as the lone arbitration eligible player out there that the Tigers need to sign.  We’ll see how the Tigers handle that one.

For those of you who are around my age, you may remember Al Cowens.  Chris Jaffe at the Hardball Times tells an interesting story that involves Cowens (both before he was with the Tigers and during). It’s a solid read so be sure to check it out.

The Tigers locked up Ryan Raburn to a two year deal worth $3.4 million.  After a breakout 2009 and a very nice second half in 2010, Raburn is penciled in as the starting left fielder for the Tigers.  This was Rabun’s first year of arbitration eligibility so the Tigers get a little bit of cost certainty by locking him up for 2012 as well.

The Tigers now have only two more arbitration eligible players to contend.  Joel Zumaya and Armando Galarraga are the two and while I think we’ll get Zumaya at a decent rate without much trouble, Galarraga posses a more interesting dilemma now that the Tigers have Brad Penny in the mix.  He’s looking like the odd man out here and he’s out of options so the Tigers have to either make room for him or cut bait.  Jason Beck takes on this question in a well thought out piece. Odds are, Galarraga starts in spring training, but ultimately, it’s to give him some trade value.

Okay, the Tigers shored up their rotation yesterday when they signed Brad Penny to a one year, $3 million deal.  Or did they? Penny started off the 2010 season with the Cardinals and he got off to a nice start before lat and back issues derailed his season in May.  The other knock on him is that his only time in the American League with the Boston Red Sox didn’t go all that well and in 24 starts, he posted a 5.61 ERA in 2009.  Oh, and his last really good season was way back in 2007 when he finished third in the National League Cy Young voting while with the Dodgers.

Still, even with those negatives, I like this signing.  The biggest reason is, you can’t get much of a lower risk then a one year, $3 million deal.  Even if he doesn’t work out, this isn’t going to be one of those debilitating multi-year deals the Tigers have gotten themselves into lately.  Another reason is, we’re talking about just upgrading over our fifth starter, which at this point is Armando Galarraga.  Even in 2006 when the Tigers won 95 games, the Tigers fifth starter (Zach Miner) won only seven games.  Their fourth best starter won 13 that year, which is Galarraga’s best win total.

So in order to evaluate this properly, it’s a Penny versus Galarraga discussion.  Penny has a better strikeout rate and a better walk rate and he’s also not as reliant on the ground ball as Galarraga is.  Plus it gives us some flexibility.  If Penny tanks, then Galarraga can move right into the rotation and if there’s a hole in the pen or the Phil Coke rotation experiment fails, we’re not left an arm short at a key point in the season.  So I like the move and a ten win Brad Penny would mean the Tigers are sitting pretty in the division.

I’ve been hearing rumors that the Tigers are going to sign Brad Penny to a one year deal.  More to follow.

***UPDATE***

Looks like it’s a done deal.  One year, $3 million with the physcial pending.

Alright, the 2011 Tigers are pretty much set.  There may be a few tweaks along the way but the lineup is there, the rotation is pretty much set (at least the front four, I’ve heard some Brad Penny rumors) and the bullpen is in place.  The question now is, what is it going to take for the Tigers to win the American League Central.  While guys like Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander get the well deserved accolades, they are also the givens in the equation.  Most teams can’t have a team full of All Stars so they need a few guys to rise to the occasion.  Miguel Carbera should hit his 30 home runs (it’s what we’re paying him for) and Justin Verlander should win his 18 games (which is what we’re paying “him” for)  but you need those veterans with one last season in the tank to step it up or have that defensive specialist finally put something together at the plate.

In 1984, the Tigers had plenty of those guys.  Guys like Dave Bergman and Rupert Jones made major contributions as role players.  Willie Hernandez got the accolades out of the pen but Aurelio Lopez was nearly as good and he served as a great number two for most of the season.  Milt Wilcox was 34 and he had never won more then 13 games until he stepped it up and had a very solid season in 1984.

So these are the guys who I think are going to be the linchpins for the Tigers in 2011.  Not all of them have to step up big, but if two or even three do, it’s going to be a nice season in Detroit this summer.

Carlos Guillen – When the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006, Carlos Guillen was their best hitter.  Since then he’s played in more then 150 games only once and he’s bounced around the field as the Tigers have made an effort to make room for him.  Now with rumors of him being ready for spring training, Guillen should be penciled in as the everyday second baseman.  Whether he sticks there will go a long way towards the Tigers having a successful season.  He can take a walk and if he reinvents himself as a table setter, he’d make a nice option in the second spot in the lineup.  Of course to draw those walks, he has to pose a threat at the plate.  Out of the four, this is the least likely guy to step up but out of the four, if he does, I think it’ll be where the Tigers get the most bang for their underrated (if overpaid) buck.

Brandon Inge – This is more of a hunch, but I think Brandon Inge is poised for a breakout season.  We saw him succeed in the first half of 2009 and since then, injuries have slowed him down.  Still, even though he only hit 13 home runs in 2010, he hit for almost .250 (last time he did that was 2006), he drew 54 walks (the same amount in 2009 despite 57 fewer plate appearances) and he cut down his strikeout rate.  If that’s a trend, it’s a trend I like and he made up for the lack of home runs with 28 doubles.  I’m going to go out on a limb by saying Brandon Inge will keep this trend going and for the time in his career, finish with an OPS over .800.

Joel Zumaya – Another cornerstone of the 2006 season, Zumaya hasn’t been healthy since.  He’s also supposed to be ready for spring training and if he can pitch like he did last year for an entire season, the Tigers should have one of the more formidable bullpens in baseball.  At this point though, 40 innings is a stretch so we’ll see.

Rick Porcello – As the defense went, so did Rick Porcello in 2011.  Still, if you’re looking for positives, his walk and home run rates went down in 2011 with only a minor blip in his strikeout rate.  If Porcello is going to take the next step, he’s going to have to start striking guys out.  Being economical is great, but the infield defense just isn’t there anymore and it showed by Porcello having a .288 batting average against.  In order to get that down, he’s going to have to start punching guys out and pitching less to the contact.

If all four guys fall flat, the Tigers could be in trouble.  Probably the least important is Joel Zumaya just because there’s guys to fill in. Still, the Tigers have made some nice moves and while I wouldn’t say I’m totally excited over the Tigers prospects this year, I’m definitely intrigued.

There’s a piece over at FanGraphs about the Tigers weaknesses.  Like me, there’s a focus on the rotation and Armando Galarraga, Phil Coke and Andrew Oliver are all highlighted.

Alright, with there being not much Tigers news out there, I figured I’d touch on some “me” stuff.  I don’t do this too often so bear with me and while I have a request, it’s free and I’ll get to that in a moment.

At one point in time, I had dreams of becoming a full time blogger.  Those plans fizzled a bit when one of the big search engines put a gigantic hole in my business model.  So since the beginning of 2009, I’ve been focusing on what I went to school for and I restarted my CPA practice.  2010 has been a challenging year for me but despite those challenges, I’ve been able to grow my business.  Now in 2011, I’m looking to take it to the next level and grow things even further.

That’s where my requests come in.  Let’s start out small with just checking out (and liking if you’re interested) my Facebook business page. There you can keep up with the latest tax and accounting trends as well as check out what some of my clients are saying about me.

The other thing I ask is that if you or someone you know might need my services, please let me know.  I’ve been doing this for sixteen years now and while I’m not cheap, my clients feel they get their money’s worth (I don’t even know what the big tax prep firms charge these days but I know I’m competitive with them).  I’ll even review your last few years tax returns for free to see if you missed anything and have the chance for an extra refund and I have a generous referral program so even if you don’t need help, you can benefit from helping me out.  And if you don’t live in the Detroit area, I have a bunch of experience preparing tax returns remotely.  Some of the people that reviewed me on my Facebook page are people who live in different states and one I’ve never met in person (although I need to fix that).  The phone and internet can be wonderful things.  Ultimately, this is who I’m doing it all for (not Spider Man, the other one).  Having my own business gives me the time to focus on my son when I have him.

Thank you for bearing with me. Now back to our regularly schedule programming.

The Tigers are paying Carlos Guillen $13 million in 2011.  I’m going to go out on a limb by saying the Tigers probably won’t get their money’s worth on him (nor have they through his four year deal) but that doesn’t mean Carlos Guillen can’t be a major contributor in the upcoming season.  I’ve always been a Guillen fan and in a lot of ways, he (along with Ivan Rodriguez) were the guys that got the Tigers started on their way back to respectability.  Still, $13 million is a princely sum for a guy who’s OPS hasn’t breached the .800 mark since 2008.

In fact if we stick to OPS, Guillen’s has fallen in each of the last since he had .920 back in 2006 (yes, that 2006).  That’s not good.  With that, Guillen doesn’t have to be a superstar to help the Tigers in 2011.  They already have big bats in Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez so if he could become a decent table setter (think 2008’s OBP of .376) and he can play most of the season, he can make a huge impact in the lineup.

Of course for Guillen to have an impact, he has to play.  That’s what makes the latest story about his recovery and the increasing chances that he’ll be ready by Opening Day encouraging.  Of course also in the piece by Beck they ask the question as to how long Guillen will stay healthy and that’s probably the bigger question.

Baseball America’s latest is on the Tigers possibly rushing their top pitching prospects to the major leagues.  There’s a ton of great stuff in there by Rick Knapp and the focus is how Rick Porcello and Andy Oliver both struggled in their 2010 campaigns.

David Laurila sat down with Tigers infielder Will Rhymes.  He talks about how he got started in the sport as well as his call up with the Tigers.  Of course Rhymes will be fighting for a job as a team’s second baseman, which is one of the Tigers more crowded (and open) spots.

With Magglio Ordonez in the fold, the Tigers now basically have their starters.  Yeah, I know there’s going to be a lot of days where the fourth outfielder (take your pick between Boesch, Kelly or Wells) is going to get some time and there are also the days where Victor Martinez will catch but this is what I think the Tigers starting lineup on opening day is going to look like as well as a few random comments.

1)  Austin Jackson CF – This isn’t going out on a limb, but I fear Jackson is set for a step back in 2011.  Most people will call it a sophomore slump but it’ll be more like him coming back down to earth from his near .400 batting average on balls in play.

2) Ryan Raburn LF – I don’t like Raburn here, but without Johnny Damon, I fear Leyland is going to drop him in the two spot. If Carlos Guillen were both healthy and effective, this is where I’d put him but he’s not so I won’t.

3)  Magglio Ordonez RF – Welcome home

4)  Miguel Cabrera 1b – Duh

5)  Victor Martinez DH – We’ll see if this gives Cabrera some better looks.  Cabrera had 32 intentional walks this year and some of those could be turned into productive hits.

6)  Jhonny Peralta SS – This is where things thin out pretty quick. If Brandon Inge has a resurgence, I could see him hitting sixth at some point.

7)  Brandon Inge 3b – I’m thinking Brandon has a good year this season.  Nothing to back it up, just a hunch that he’ll come close to topping his career best .793 OPS he had way back in 2004.

8)  Scott Sizemore 2b – I took Sizemore over Rhymes but I predict Rhymes will be the starting shortstop most of the second half because Sizemore stumbles again.  Sizemore needs a good start because there are plenty of options behind him (including Carlos Guillen when/if he comes back) so we’ll see if he can rise to the occasion.

9) Alex Avila C – This is time for Avila to step up.  He’s the catcher, but if he struggles, they might resort to Martinez getting more time behind the plate.

So there you have it.  The rotation is sort of set (Leyland seemed wishy washy with Galarraga as the fifth starter) and the pen is in decent enough shape.  From here on out, I don’t see the Tigers making any big moves but I like what they’ve done.  Now they can look towards locking up their arbitration eligible players so they know where they stand money wise.

Yesterday, the latest edition of THT forecast launched.  With lots of new features, THT forecasts is a must have for the elite fantasy player but it also has some outstanding benefits for just about anyone interested in the game.  Do you want to see what the Tigers can expect out of Miguel Cabrera in 2016?  It’s there.  How should we expect Justin Verlander’s strikeout total to progress over the next few years?  That’s also there.   What should we expect from Max Scherzer if we lock him up to a long term deal?  That’s also there.

Select players have commentary. I worked on the Tigers piece and I’ll be keeping the depth charts up to date.  Anyway, there’s a ton of other features so be sure to click on the link to see all that you get.

Now this is what I’m talking about.  Way back before the 2005 season, Magglio Ordonez didn’t appear to have any suitors.  Not only the Tigers step and take the risk on him, but they signed him to a big deal.  Now in 2011, Ordonez appears headed back to Detroit at a home town discount.  The price is high ($10 million) but it’s only a one year deal so there’s not a lot of risk there.

So now the Tigers lineup is relatively set and it’s not even Christmas.  If Ordonez can continue what he started in 2010, having him and Victor Martinez to back up Miguel Cabrera could be huge.  I still have some concerns about the pitching, but I like this move.

Chris Kahrl’s latest at Baseball Prospectus is all on the Tigers offseason moves.  They’ve been busy and you have to think there’s a move or two left but it’s nice seeing things all in one place.  The first thing I noticed (because I missed it) was that Alfred Figaro was released.  The Tigers top prospects have had some interesting plights.  Jeff Larish was the top hitting prospect a couple of years ago and now he’s gone (minor league deal with the Phillies).  Now you have Alfredo Figaro, who started game 161 for the Tigers in 2009 when they were knee deep in a battle with the Twins for the AL Central title, is now also gone after a lackluster 2010 campaign.

Kahrl mentions how Benoit gives the Tigers pen a lot more flexibility (as well as adding to one of the hardest throwing pens in baseball)   Overall though, she seems to like the Tigers chances of competing in a usually weak AL Central.

Not too long ago, I talked about the Tigers starting pitching.  The winter meetings have come and gone and the Tigers didn’t make a move in that department so it looks like the Phil Coke experiment begins.  Coke was a starter in the Yankees farm system but since he’s been in the major leagues, he’s pitched out of the pen with the exception of his lone start in game 162 for the Tigers in 2010.  Now with Jeremy Bonderman’s departure (i.e. being pushed out), the Tigers are an arm short and it looks like the Tigers are relying on Coke to fill that hole.

Jim Leyland thinks the transition is going to be easy but aren’t things rarely that?  Still, Coke started 77 games in the minors but he’s never had a season where he “just” started.  With Dan Schereth coming up, the Tigers have some wiggle room and what I like best about this move is, Coke isn’t much of a lefty specialist.  In 2010, he had practically no platoon split and as a lefty specialist, your job is to get lefties out.   His career platoon splits are a little better but still, this is a guy who can get righties out too.

Endurance could be a problem and August is Coke’s worst month so far (7.08 ERA in 20 1/3 innings).  The flip side to that is September is one of his better months (3.09 ERA in 32 innings).  Since we’re having fun with splits, Coke is lights out in June.  In 20 2/3 innings, he has a 0.44 ERA and a 0.823 WHIP.  Overall, he’s a little bit worse in the second half then in the first so it’ll be interesting to see how things play out when he’s pitching 150 innings.  Of course he’ll be forced to pace himself better and that could be the big wild card.  If he can accomplish that, we could see a successful transition.

These are interesting times for Tigers fans. If Coke can pitch well as the team’s fifth starter, that would go a long way towards helping the Tigers make the playoffs.  The bad thing is, at least the moment, there’s no good option if the experiment fails.  Andrew Oliver would probably be next in line but I question whether he’s ready.  Should be a fun spring.

After making some major waves in two of the last three winter meetings, the Tigers were fairly quiet this time around.  The big players were the Boston Red Sox (who really set themselves up nicely for next year) and the Chicago White Sox (who re-signed Paul Konerko and locked up Adam Dunn prior to the meeting) this time around.  It’ll be interesting to see if the Yankees now feel pressed and make Cliff Lee an offer he can’t refuse.

A lot of people have asked me about the Jayson Werth deal and here’s my take.  Werth would have been stupid to turn the money down so props to him.  As far as the Nationals, I equate them to the 2003 Tigers.  in 2004 and 2005 the Tigers overspent (or so we thought) at the time for Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez but by 2006 they were playing in a World Series.  The Nationals had to overpay someone to get their ball rolling and as it turns out, that guy was Jayson Werth.  Yeah, it threw off a lot of other teams because it set an unusually high bar but they can take it up when they talk amongst themselves when getting ready for the CBA negotiations.

And with Werth and now Crawford out of the mix, it looks like Magglio is the guy the Tigers are targeting.  He held a private workout for the Tigers and you hope they’d get a little bit of a home town discount of course I’m not holding my breath.

The Tigers signed Chris Oxspring to a minor league deal.  He’s from Australia and he got a minor league deal.  Oxspring is playing in the Australian Baseball League with Brad Thomas and he’ll be competing for a shot in the Tigers pen.

The Tigers neither lost nor picked up a player in any phase of the Rule 5 draft.  It’s been a while (I think) since that happened.

It looks like baseball is going to lose another legend because Bob Feller is now in hospice.  The rivalry between he and Hal Newhouser made for a hot ticket back in the day (way back in the day).

Anyway, the meetings may be over but the Tigers still have some work to do.  It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the offseason plays out.

The Tigers aren’t the only kids on the AL Central block throwing money around.  The Chicago White Sox made the first big move of the offseason by signing Adam Dunn to shore up their lineup.  It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins and now the Tigers respond.  Not only does this take one of the blue chip free agents out of the picture and reduces the supply but it also shold cause both the Twins and Tigers to respond in kind.

I mentioned Greinke in passing as a rotation option a while back but it turned out to be a pipe dream.  Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Royals won’t trade Greinke to another AL Central team.

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