Archive for the '2009 Tigers' Category

10 am is the time, Lakeland is the place.  While I’m sure there’s been some activity at Joker Marchant the past few days, today marks the official start of spring training as pitchers and catchers are required to report.

In a little over a month, all of our questions will be answered.  Is Carlos Guillen ready for the outfield (my guess is yes).  Who will be the fifth starter?  How will the bullpen shake out?   Are Jeremy Bonderman and Joel Zumaya going to bounce back from their latest injuries?  Does Gary Sheffield have one more spectacular season left in the tank?  Does Dave Dombrowski have one more deal left in his back pocket to help improve this team?

The first spring game is a week from Wednesday.  I should be home but busy so I should be able to catch it on the radio feed.  It’s tough being a CPA and a baseball fan with the whole April 15 thing.

Kevin Goldstein recently released his list of the top eleven prospects in the Tigers system and I was generally pleased.  There’s a few of these lists that I check out and out of all of them, I respect Goldstein’s the most and he doesn’t disappoint.  I recently had to pen a top ten prospect list (long story, which you’ll eventually hear about) and as Goldstein talks about, the Tigers are a tough nut to crack. You namely have the top guy, then a crap shoot from there.

There’s no surprise that Rick Porcello tops the list.  After that, Goldstein says that any of the the three star guys are interchangable from Cale Iorg at number two to Ryan Strieby (a personal favorite) at number eight.  Ryan Perry has been the de facto number two guy on most lists so I like the fact that Goldstein changes gears with Iorg. 

Ryan Strieby has been apsent from a lot of lists and I had him at number ten on mine.  Goldstein gave him the last three star spot but Strieby is going to be severely hampered by his ability to just play first base.  Miguel Cabrera isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but maybe Strieby will make some interesting trade bait.

I was surprised he had Alfredo Figaro just missing, yet his teammate with the White Caps, Jon Kibler, didn’t even get a nod.  Luis Marte is another guy who bears watching.  He actually outpitched Rick Porcello earlier in the season last year with Lakeland.

Of course, you never know with any of these guys.  There was a time when Bruce Fields and Chris Pittaro were can’t miss prospects.  Casper Wells came out of nowhere last year (ten on the list) and he could easily go back to no where.  Hopefully not, but the fun part is seeing how these guys all do in the Tigers system.

If you want to learn more about Cale Iorg, Jonathan Mayo talked about in a recent column.  It’s definitely worth checking out.

Pitchers and Catchers report in just over seven days (a week from Friday) and outside of the Justin Verlander signing, things have been pretty quiet.  The Tigers outrighted Eddie Bonine to the Mud Hens and that’s probably where he’ll pitch in 2009.  With Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis and Zach Miner all vying for the fifth spot in the rotation (I’ll give Chris Lambert a very outside chance as well), someone like Bonine would need multiple things to happen to see time with the Tigers.  In addition, the Tigers needed to make room for Brandon Lyon.  Of course there have been reports that the Tigers are trying to shop either Roberton or Willis so that could clear some room for someone down the line.  Of course you could also argue that the person who claims the fifth spot could just be a placeholder for Rick Porcello,

I was over at Baseball Prospectus and I was a little surprised by some of the Value Over Replacement Player numbers (VORP).  Number one on the list was no surprise (Armando Galarraga) but Aquilino Lopez was second and he wasn’t even offered a contract (I’m still a bit surprised by that) and third was Zach Miner (who I think will end up as the fifth starter this year). Yorman Bazardo came in at third from last and he did it despite throwing just three innings.

Killshot psp The Tigers first spring game is February 25th.  There’s a few less teams in the Grapefruit League so you’re going to be seeing a lot of the same teams more.  The opener is against the Braves (their Florida Southern game isn’t until the following Monday).  They also play Venezuela and Panama that week before the WBC kicks off on March 5. 

I’m on the fence as to whether I’ll get MLB.TV or just the radio package.  I’m usually doing some kind of work in the evenings but I have a second computer.  I just don’t usually stay up late and the Tigers are on more nights then not.  I like the new DVR like function though and some of the new features look pretty cool.  I didn’t use it as often as I should have and Mosaic seemed to do a number on my desktop too so we’ll see.  They did bring down the price but it’s still a $100 difference and since I’m a dinosaur and grew up listening to the games on the radio, that’s usually my preference anyway.

The Tigers still had over a week until Justin Verlander’s arbitration hearing, but they got the deal done with likely opening day starter Justin Verlander.  In his first year of arbitration eligibility, Verlander will make $3.675 million, which isn’t too shaby for a four year player.  It also happened to be the exact midpoint between what Verlander and the Tigers were looking for in arbitration. 

Killshot full

It’ll be interesting to see how Verlander holds up in 2009.  It’ll be his second year at the front of the rotation and he’s coming off of his worst season in a Tigers uniform.  He’ll turn 26 in a couple of weeks but he’s averaged over 200 innngs (if you include the postseason) a season since sticking with the Tigers and it was some of that heavy work that might have resulted in a drop in his velocity in 2008.  It would have been nice to lock up Verlander to a 3-4 year deal, but according to this, that was never on the table.

This also marks another perfect season for Dave Dombrowski.  Since he took over in the Tigers front office in 2002.  Arbitration is one of those things that’s lose/lose for most teams.  If the player wins the case, it usually means the team is playing a slightly inflated value.  If the team wins, then there’s usually some resentment on the side of the player in future years.

There’s a decent story on Jeff Larish by Jason Beck.  A big part of Larish making it in the big leagues is shortening his swing.  If he can do that and keep his power, he should be able to cut down on some of those strikeouts.  I think he makes the team, considering he’s gotten time at third and in the outfield during the offseason.

Pitchers and catchers report next Thursday.  Baseball is almost back.

Here’s more then you probably ever wanted to know about Tigers future closer in waiting, Brandon Lyon.  Good stuff, and it’s just part one.

• Ring Around the Rosie psp

The Tigers inked Brandon Lyon to a one year deal and he’ll be the odds on favorite to close out of spring training. Lyon had a solid season in 2008 but after a very solid first half as the Diamondbacks closer, he melted down in the second half and eventually lost the job. Still, the Tigers probably looked at those 51 career saves and figured that someone on the team with closer experience (if you believe in such a thing) is better then what the Tigers are sitting on.

That’ll push Fernando Rodney down into a set up role and then when Joel Zumaya comes back, he’ll be a spot reliever/seventh inning guy.  It’s not a bad move, although Lyon’s numbers are hardly dominating.  Last year he struck out just 44 in 59 1/3 innings, although he walked just 13.  The seven homeruns are a concern.  I’d compare him to Todd Jones, but Lyon isn’t quite as percise and he has a better strikeout rate.

Of course this sets the stage for the Tigers to fast track prospect Dusty Ryan Ryan Perry who’s been pretty much deemed the Tigers closer of the future.  Assuming he pitches like he should, we should see Ryan in some capacity on the Tigers in 2000.

The Tigers signed four of their five arbitration eligible players before the figure exchanging deadline yesterday.  All four got one year deals and will be payed as follows:

Gerald Laird – $2.8 million
Edwin Jackson – $1.825 million
Bobby Seay – $1.3 million
Joel Zumaya – $735,000

That’s not too bad and I’d say we’re making out in all four of these cases.  I was particularly impressed with how much Edwin Jackson settled for.  I figured he’d go for more and despite some of his negatives, it’s hard not to feel that we’ll be getting our money’s worth even if he has just a mediocre season.

That leaves Justin Verlander.  The Tigers and Verlander exchanged figures and they’re just under a million apart.  The Tigers came in at $3.2 million while Verlander asked for $4.15.  The goal is to still sign the guy before they go to the table and that will probably involved a multi-year deal.

The Tigers signed Juan Rincon to a minor league deal.  He’s had two pretty bad years in 2007 and 2008 after being one of the best setup men in baseball for the Twins.  Rick Knapp seems to think he’s set to turn things around

One Hell of a Christmas video

so if this one works, we could also have a bargain on our hands.

The Tigers are also still talking to Brandon Lyon so we’ll see what happens there.  He wouldn’t lead my list of closer candidates, but if it pushes Rodney (and eventually Zumaya) into a more situational role, it’s probably not all bad.  I just hope they don’t overpay.

There’s little doubt that the Tigers pitching staff disappointed in 2008. The Tigers 4.91 ERA was the twelfth best in the American League and while the 644 walks they gave up didn’t help, they also gave up 1,541 hits, which was eleventh best in the American League. In 2006, when they led the league with a 3.84 mark, they only gave up 1,420 hits. That’s a full 121 less then 2008. While some of that can be piled on the pitchers, the fact that the Tigers led the league in defensive efficiency in 2006 (.704 versus league average of .688 that year) and finished with a below average .686 defensive efficiency in 2008 (.691 was average) also has something to do with it.

Fortunately, the Tigers defense should get better in 2009. How much better do you ask? Well, we’ll focus on the left side of the infield and we’ll use a couple of different fielding metrics to figure out how much help is on the way.

First we’ll take a look at the Baseball Prospectus stats. Here’s a look at the Tigers who got time at third base in 2008 (the numbers represent fielding runs above a replacement level player adjusted for that season):

Carlos Guillen – 14 runs in 89 games
Brandon Inge – 10 runs in 51 games
Jeff Larish – 1 run in 12 games
Ryan Raburn – 0 runs in 18 games
Mike Hessman – 2 runs in 12 games
Ramon Santiago – -1 runs in six games
Mike Hollimon – 0 runs in two games

I know that doesn’t add up to 162 games, but it’s because some games had multiple third basemen. Anyway, if you add up all of those numbers you come with 26 runs. In 2006 Brandon Inge played 159 games at third and he logged 36 runs above replacement. That’s pretty good for a third baseman because the American League gold glove winner at third base had 28 that year (and for that matter, Chavez never finished with a higher mark then 30). That’s a ten run difference and while it’s not an exact science, ten runs usually equal about one win.

Now lets look at shortstop:

Edgar Renteria – 19 runs above replacement in 138 games
Ramon Santiago – 3 runs above replacement in 33 games
Mike Hollimon – 0 runs above replacement in 6 games.

Here’s where it gets a little tricky. The Tigers 2008 total was 22 RAR. That’s not good. In fact it’s below average. Now the question is, how do we value Everett. The last time he played a full season was 2006 and he had an outstanding season with 40 FRAR. To put this in perspective, Omar Vizquel, who’s touted as probably the second best fielding shortstop of all time, never had a season above 35 FRAR. In 2007, Everett had 12 FRAR in 66 games in an injury marred season and then in 2008, he had 16 in only 44 games as a reserve.

So let’s do some back of the envelope math. For Everett to get to 40, he’d have to have another outstanding season. In 2007, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he would have gotten to 30 had he played a full year and then if you look at 2008, he could have fallen in the 35+ range if he had gotten to play every day. So let’s keep it simple. 32 isn’t out of the realm of possibility and it keeps the math simple because once again, Everett is 10 runs better then the Tigers compliment in 2008. That’s another win so if you use my sweet and simple method, the Tigers should be two wins better in the field with Inge and Everett at third and short respectively.

This also assumes that Inge and Everett play the entire year. For Inge, this is possible because he’s done it in the past few years. Everett hasn’t played a full season since 2006 so then the question is, how will Ramon Santiago, who would probably get those missed games, play in his place. While Ramon Santiago is a solid fielder, he’s not gold glove quality so the more games Everett misses, the more that the two game advantage will get chewed into.

The fielding measure I also like to look at is the +/- version that John Dewan created for his The Fielding Bible–Volume II. While this doesn’t give us a nice clean run or win number like FRAR does, it should help validate our findings above. The first volume of the Fielding Bible has 2003 through 2005 +/- figures and the short explanation of the figure is how many more plays that fielder made above what an average fielder at his position would have gotten too. For 2006 through 2008, you can find the numbers at Bill James Online. Keep in mind that we’re now talking about an average player and not a replacement player.

Anyway, using the Fielding Bible figures, Adam Everett is a stud. He led all of baseball in +/- in every year from 2003 through 2006. Even with the injury marred 2007, he still finished sixth and there wasn’t enough data to give him a rating in 2008. One interesting thing to note about Everett is, his numbers going to his right have come down considerably (from very good to just above average). Going to his left, he’s still great even if you just look at 2007. In 2008, Renteria was the 28th best fielding shortstop with a -9 ranking. He was good going to his left (but not nearly as good as in year’s past) and he was still bad going to his right.

At third base, Carlos Guillen was the 26th best fielding third baseman with a -8 rating. Inge was the second best third baseman in both 2006 and 2007 with a +27 and +22 rating respectively. Fortunately, Inge’s strength is going to his right so that should make up for any diminshed range that Everett has going to his right.

So again, let’s do some back of the envelope math. If you add Guillen and Renteria’s figured together we get -17. If Inge gets to +20, it’ll still be a good year and even Everett slides a touch and plays a whole year at +20 (his worst figure from 2003 through 2006 was +21, his best was +41 in 2006). That’s 67 plays more that you’ll see from Inge and Everett then you got from Guillen and Renteria. That’s more then one play every three games and while that doesn’t sound like a lot, I bet if you asked the pitchers, they’d definitely take it.

So there you go. Two measures and both show a big improvement. And that’s only two slots. Guillen should be an upgrade over the left field revolving door last year and something that went under the radar was that Curtis Granderson didn’t have as good of a year in the field as he did in 2007 or 2006. If both of those guys improve their positions, then it’ll just get better for the pitching staff.

Five Tigers filed for arbitration as the latest deadline in the process has come and gone.  Gerald Laird, Joel Zumaya, Justin Verlander, Bobby Seay and Edwin Jackson all filed and now, the two teams have until Tuesday when they exchange figures.  The hope is that it never gets that far and all five guys are in the fold by that time.

I’ve already talked about Justin Verlander, but how the Tigers treat the other five guys will give fans a glimpse at the Tigers future.  I can’t see Zumaya getting more then a one year deal with all of the injuries, but a guy like Edwin Jackson carries some risks and rewards.  If 2008 is a good indicator of what he can do, then he should be able to get the money that a back of the rotation guy should get and the Tigers might try to lock him up.  If the Tigers sign Laird to a longer (2-4 years) deal, then it goes to show what the system thinks of Dusty Ryan (and Alex Avila for that matter).

Regardless, it’s cold outside but things are going to be heating up in the front office and it’s expected (based on the fact that Dombrowski has never let a case go to arbitration) that all five guys will be signed by late Monday.

The Tigers settled with two arbitration eligible players today as both Marcus Thames and Fernando Rodney signed one year deals.    Marcus Thames got a $1 million raise and he’ll make $2.275 million   Rodney got a raise as well and he’ll make $2.7 million.

That leaves five guys left to sign, with of course Justin Verlander leading the list.  If an arbitration eligible player isn’t signed by Monday, then the two sides exchange figures and if a deal isn’t reached by the early February, it goes into an arbitration hearing.  It’s likely it’ll go that far though because Dave Dombrowski hasn’t let a player reach actual arbitration since he took over in 2002.

At this point, I’m anxious for any Tigers news.  The latest came at the end of an “On the Beat” column by John Perrotto where he talks about the Tigers having an interest in left handed relief pitcher John Parrish.

Last year, Parrish was mediocre as a swing man for the Blue Jays.  His career 221/184 strikeout to walk percentage doesn’t grab me all that much considering those 221 strikeouts came over 271 2/3 innings.   He’s only pitched more then 52 major league innings in a season once and his only good season where he threw more then 30 innings was back in 2004 when he had a 3.46 ERA and 71 strikeouts (55 walks though) in 78 innings.

On top of that, his platoon split isn’t all that impressive.  Over his career, he has a .256 batting average against versus left handed pitchers (.271 versus righties).  To put that in perspective, Bobby Seay’s batting average against lefties is .266 so we’re not getting too much of an upgrade here when you factor in all of the walks.  I think the Tigers can do better then this by staying home.

With that, what’s the over/under for the date that Ryan Perry makes his major league debut?  He’ll probably start in Double-A but if the Tigers pen runs into problems and he has good numbers in the minors, you could see him up by the break.

For the second year in a row, the Tigers tapped Taiwan as a baseball resource.  A year after signing outfielder Chao-Ting Tang to a minor league deal, the Tigers have not brought Fu-Te Ni, a left handed relief pitcher, into the Tigers minor league fold.  The Tigers at least think that he has major league potential so it’ll be interesting to see how the 25 year old works his way through the Tigers minor league system.

• Becket rip

Derek Lowe just signed with the Braves to a hefty four year, $60 million deal.  While Lowe has had a solid career, that sounds like a bit much.  Yeah, he’s a 21 game winner, but so was Dontrelle Willis.  And while his past four seasons have been solid for the Dodgers, he hasn’t garnered a single Cy Young vote nor played in a single All Star Game and while his numbers look nice, he has the advantage of playing in Chavez Ravine.  He has been durable and while he’s been above average, I question whether he’s that much above average to warrant $15 million per year.

Which brings us to one of the biggest decisions the Tigers face this offseason, and that’s what to do with Justin Verlander.  He’s eligible for arbitration, but no Tiger has ever gone to the table since Dave Dombrowski has been in the front office.  What the bigger question is, do the Tigers sign him to a one year deal and take their chances, or do they lock him up for four or five years now.

The economy is one big question mark because the Detroit area has been particularly hard hit.   You also have a double whammy in that people don’t have money AND the Tigers flunked out last year so demand isn’t going to be there like it has the past two seasons.  Throw in the fact that the Tigers have a lot of committed money over the next three years and it makes for an interesting conundrum.

With that, I could see Verlander getting $15 or even more in some of those later years (the free agent years) if he signed a long term deal.  Then you just have to hope that 2008 was a fluke and that Verlander turns into the ace that everyone expects him to.

If you’re a Tigers’ fan and you’re waiting for the team to make a move, any move, you may be waiting for a while.  Baseball Prospectus’ John Perrotto ran down a revised list of the top 20 free agents still out there, and not once did the Tigers get a mention.  Of course Chad Cordero isn’t on the list and that’s the last guy I’ve heard the Tigers mentioned with.

Tomorrow, we’ll find out who the new inductees into the Hall of Fame will be.  Rickey Henderson is a lock, and if I were a betting man, I’d say Jim Rice gets in as well.  After that, it’s kind of a crap shoot.  I think Bert Blyleven just misses, but sets himself up for a 2010 induction.  Home Run Derby has been keeping track of the ballots that have been publicized (with 51) and it looks like another guy who could slip in is Andre Dawson.  It’d be nice to see Blyleven get in because there’s a better chance Jack Morris could make a run.  I’m kind of disappointed with the attention Tim Raines has been getting though.  I’d put him in over Andre Dawson and I think he’s just about on par with Rice.

One problem with the data I linked to is it’s still a small sample size.  Last year, there were over 540 ballots so the 51 that were tracked is a pretty small sample size.

The Tigers are still on the lookout for a closer and after Derrick Turnbow signed with the Texas Rangers, the Tigers have their eyes on another pitcher coming off of a big time injury.  Former Nationals closer Chad Cordero will be showing his stuff this week and the Tigers are one of several teams who have their eyes on how his arm holds up.  The big question is whether he’ll be ready for opening day or not.  Based on his rehab schedule, it’s a possibility but I can’t imagine he’ll be 100% for the first half of the season.  Still, this is one of those high risk, potentially high return type of moves that the Tigers are faced with.

The Tigers inked former outfielder Alexis Gomez to a minor league deal and he’ll get a chance to show his stuff at spring training.  Gomez has bounced around two different minor league systems since he had his impressive ALCS for the Tigers back in 2006.  Odds are good, with the Tigers depth at outfield, that Gomez will find himself at Toledo to start the season but with the departure of Matt Joyce and Gomez being left handed, there’s a solid chance that we’ll see him in Tigers uniform in 2009.

Joel Zumaya looks to begin throwing within a week as he once again tries to come back from an injury.  Even with an optimistic time table, it’s unlikely that Zumaya will be fully ready when spring training fires up but it’d be nice if we could see what he could do late in March.  With the Tigers leaving the pen alone so far, that puts even more pressure on the Zumaya to come back strong to help the team.

Over the summer, work prevented me from posting as much as I’d like.  Now that I have the time, there’s been little to talk about.  The winter meetings are a distant past and the Tigers have been pretty quiet when it comes to the free agent market.  While the Yankees have made their splash, the biggest signing the Tigers have made so far has been Adam Everett.

Oh wait, one piece of news is the Tigers bloated salary last year cost the team $1.3 million via the luxury tax.  The Angels and Red Sox have also crossed the threshold in years past and unless I’m missing a team, the Tigers are now the fourth team to make a payment.  Of course the fourth team are the Yankees, who have been perennial donors to the luxury tax pot.

It looks like the Washington Nationals are in the same boat that the Tigers were back in 2005.  The Tigers made several offers to high profile players like Carl Pavano and Steve Finley only to have player after player decline their offers for greener pastures.  Now it’s the Nationals, who made a huge offer to Mark Teixeira, who are being snubbed.  According to this story, the Nationals offered a slightly larger amount then the Yankees did and were willing to go even higher, but the idea of playing for an instant contender must have pushed Teixeira to the Bronx.

It seems like between my work for Tigers Corner 2009 and the Hardball Times Annual Season Preview 2009, I’ve beat the 2008 season to death.  Still, Jason Beck does a nice job in this piece of going through the carnage of what was the 2008 Tigers season.

The MLB Network kicks off on Thursday.  Unfortunately, because I’m too cheap to pay for digital cable, I won’t get the station.  I did get a nice new toy for Christmas though so I’m happy despite the fact I won’t get to see Don Larsen’s perfect game on New Years Day.

The Tigers are close to signing former Marlins catcher Matt Treanor to serve as their backup backstop to Gerald Laird.  Treanor has spent five seasons with the Marlins and not once has he topped 70 games.  His best season is 2007 when he hit a career high .269 with four homeruns.

For now, it looks like Dusty Ryan is going to find his time for the Mud Hens.  That’s not a horrible move because it’ll give Ryan the chance to work every day.  Treanor’s deal appears to be for just one year ($705k salary) so if Ryan performs as expected, he should slide into at least the backup role in 2010.

And while you’re over at MLB.com, there’s also a good column on Fernando Rodney.  I think to rely on Rodney to close all season is a risk but for now, that’s the hand we’ve drawn.

The Tigers finalized a one year, $1 million deal for shortstop Adam Everett today.  While I’m still not interested in seeing him at the plate, having both he and Brandon Inge on the left side of the infield should be fun to watch.

There’s still no indication how he’ll be splitting time with the freshly signed Ramon Santiago but it wouldn’t surprise me if Leyland goes with the hot hand from week to week. Everett is right handed where as Santiago is a switch hitter so that’ll mean something as well.  We probably won’t find out exactly what happens until spring training.

Things have been quiet since the winter meetings have ended but the Tigers have been rumored to have talked with Derrick Turnbow.  The right hander was the Brewers closer in 2005 (when he was very good) and 2006 (when he wasn’t) before being relegated to a middle relief role in 2007 (when he was okay) but he was out because of a bad shoulder for most of 2008.

A couple of other teams have been interested, but it looks like at least for now, no team has been willing to give him a major league contract.  This report talks about him having a throwing session in January, but by then the cat will be out of the bag and you wonder if it’d make sense to pull the trigger now before the rest of the league sees what he can do.

• A Complete History of My Sexual Failures trailer

The Tigers inked shortstop Ramon Santiago to a one year, $825,000 deal that means the Tigers will avoid arbitration.  Santiago is a slick fielder with good range and it looks like he’ll share time with Adam Everett, who the Tigers signed earlier this week.  Everett has been deemed the starter, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Santiago gets his share of starts if he shows he can do what he did last year with the bat (.282 average and four homers in 124 at bats).

The non-tender deadline is tonight and Jason Beck reports that the Tigers might not have any this year.  If there is one, it’ll probably be Aquilino Lopez.  Like Beck talks about in the column, what’s just as important is who’s a non-tender from other teams (with Takashi Saito being one player who could hit the market).

For one last tidbit, Jon Paul Morosi runs down Wil Rhymes fantastic season in the Arizona Fall League this year.  It still wasn’t good enough to get him on the top ten prospect list though.

***UPDATE***

The non-tender list is out, and the Tigers have none so they must have made an offer to everyone, including Aquilino Lopez.  There are some interesting names on there, including Dodgers closer Takashi Saito as well as a slew of starters like Denny Bautista, Chuck James, Tim Redding and Chris Capuano.  Also making the list was former Tiger Wil Ledezma.  The Rays gave up on Jonny Gomes and the Rockies, who dealt for him just a couple of years, failed to offer a deal to Willie Taveras.

• A Complete History of My Sexual Failures psp

***ANOTHER UPDATE***

Now it looks like Lopez wasn’t offered a deal after all.

« Previous Entries | Next Entries »

Powered by
WordPress

Click to advertise

http://every1bets.com