Archive for the '2006 Tigers' Category

I had a chance to meet Sam Walker, the author of “Fantasyland”, this evening. Nice guy, and he gave a great presentation on his book at the Borders in Ann Arbor. If you haven’t picked up “Fantasyland” yet, I highly recommend you do so. Especially if you’re a fantasy baseball fan. You can read my review of the book at the Hardball Times.

The fifth starter spot for the Tigers is still wide open. Justin Verlander, who was probably the favorite heading into the spring, hasn’t exactly lit it up. And now after a solid outing by Jason Grilli, I see his name’s being mentioned as the potential fifth starter. Grilli threw four shutout innings on Monday and Jim Leyland has thrown his name into the hat. Grilli had limited time on the mound for the Tigers last year and made three appearances in September. In his best start, he went seven innings and gave up only one run on two hits. Grilli’s a Royal Oak native and he’ll be 30 in November.

Nate Robertson was having a very good spring. In his first two starts he gave up only one unearned run in five innings. Yesterday against the Twins, he gave up eight hits and seven runs (four earned) in only two innings of work. If the Tigers are going to have any chance of being good this year, they need solid pitching up and down their rotation for the entire year. Robertson’s done well the last two years in the first half but then has dropped off in the second. Hopefully he can get over that hump this year.

Brent Clevlen has had an exceptional spring. While I don’t have the box score for this afternoon’s game (the Tigers just lost 3-1 to the Jays), Clevlen’s eight for nineteen with two doubles and a team leading three homeruns. He also has five walks next to five strikeouts. Not that we need yet another outfielder, but in a lot of ways it makes the Magglio Ordonez signing that much more excessive. Brandon Inge (.400/.478/.650 in 20 at bats) and Marcus Thames (.304/.360/.652) have also hit the ball well. Inge’s stats don’t include his first homerun of the spring, which he hit off of James Baldwin today.

First it’s Barry Bonds and now it’s Roger Clemens. I’m not sure who Jeff Passan is and I’m sure he’s a top notch journalist, but this column kind of irked me. Passan is basically telling us that the best pitcher of our generation, and possibly ever, should just “end the charade” and call it quits. I also thought that bringing Clemens wife into it wasn’t appropriate. And I don’t understand how it’s a charade. Maybe I’m missing the point so it could be me.

A lot of people tend to forget that the Astros started this by not offering Clemens arbitration. Had they done that, odds are things would have been resolved by now, but the Astros weren’t willing to play their hand. The way I look at it, if Clemens comes back, that’s great because I’ll get to see one of the greatest pitchers to ever lace them up pitch again, even if it is just on television. Although Houston comes to town in late June so maybe Clemens will make a curtain call. And I know he might not even travel with the team if he’s with the Astros, but whatever.

And if he decides to call it quits, that’s fine too. If he quits, then comes back, then that’s also fine, because who the heck am I to say what Roger Clemens should or shouldn’t do.

Today’s a fun day because the WBC is on all day (although I have to run out to get some errands done soon). In what could be a huge upset, Cuba is taking it to a stacked Venezuela team and is now on top 7-0 in the seventh. Omar Vizquel couldn’t convert a double play in the fifth that would have ended the inning with a 2-0 score. Then the next batter hit a three run shot and that was followed up with a solo shot. Costly error. I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m really enjoying the WBC. There’s been some great games and they have drama. It’s not what I’m used to in March.

Spoke too soon. Endy Chavez just hit a two run shot and it’s now 7-2. Of course if you can’t get to a TV, you can follow the action at Baseball Musings. David’s doing a great job of commenting on the games as they happen.

Baseball season is upon us and I am headed for Comerica Park with my Detroit Tigers game tickets in hand. I got some great seats this year and I can’t wait to see the Detroit Tigers play the rest of the Chicago White Sox games at home. I’m pretty excited about the Tigers versus the Minnesota Twins series too. We started the season with six wins in a row which makes me think I am going to need to get tickets for Tigers versus the Los Angeles Angels at home to see how they kick off the month of May.

True fans attend at least a few away games each season. Since I am in Detroit, I can jet down to Chicago to pick up some Cubs tickets for the Tigers Wrigley Field games. I could also take a trip to Milwaukee to see the Tigers versus the Brewersfor a three game series at Miller Park. I have a feeling that this is the year to see as many Detroit Tigers games as possible, but I don’t remember a time when I didn’t attend at least six or seven Tigers home games a season. That’s not to mention all the away games I manage to grace with my presence.

I can’t wait to see some Boston Red Sox games and some of the New York Yankees schedule so I can scope out the competition. I think we have an edge over a lot of other teams with Chris Shelton and Curtis Granderson at the plate. They both have proven themselves in the short time we have been playing this season and I can’t wait to see how they improve as the season goes on. I was lucky I didn’t get Tigers Opening Day tickets because the White Sox beat us. But I am not going to just lose faith over one or two losses. This is baseball after all so we will have plenty more opportunities to redeem ourselves.

So whether you are traveling to see the Tigers versus the Cleveland Indians or sitting in the cheap seats at a Detroit Tigers home game, you should remember that supporting your team is an admirable thing that shouldn’t be done from the comfort of your couch. Get out of the house, buy some Tigers tickets and bring the family out to the ballpark for some Tigers baseball games this 2006 MLB season.

Just in case you haven’t heard, there’s a new book out about Barry Bonds and his alleged steroid use. I’m not sure if I’ll pick it up and read it or not, because it sounds more soap opera esque then anything. But of course I don’t want to pass judgement because I haven’t actually read the thing. I do have a few thoughts.

The whole steroids thing just feels like old news to me. If Barry Bonds began using steroids in 1998, that’s almost eight years old. This is hardly cutting edge journalism. Where was everyone five or ten years ago when steroid use was supposedly at it’s peak?

I also don’t like the self righteousness of some in the media. Dan Wetzel’s on our local radio station and he sounds like he really knows his stuff. Then he writes something like this. It just has the feel of kicking someone when they’re down. I know I’ve made mistakes and errors in judgement in the past, so I’m glad someone wasn’t there to write about it so everyone could read about my mistakes. I know that’s the job of the media, but again, where were these people back when this stuff was really going down. And not to pick on Mr. Wetzel, because there’s several people in the media who have been doing this.

I was listening to Pat Caputo yesterday on the radio, and I think he’s the most honest person I’ve heard speak out on this stuff. He’s said publicly that he suspected that something odd was going on, but everyone’s turned a blind eye. When it comes to pointing fingers, it’s easy to say Barry Bonds was a cheater. But if you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem. And everyone from the media, to the owners, to the coaches and down to the players who were aware of all this should share the blame.

As far as Barry Bonds goes, he’s made his bed and now he has to sleep in it. He also doesn’t owe us anything, whether it’s an apology or an explanation. At least he doesn’t owe me anything. He has to live with his mistakes, not me.

Justin Verlander had a decent start yesterday after getting shelled in a relief appearance earlier in the spring season. He threw 2 2/3 and gave up a run on four hits. His primary competition for the fifth spot in the rotation, Roman Colon, hasn’t fared much better so things are still wide open.

Sam Walker, the author of “Fantasyland” will be at the Borders on Main Street in Ann Arbor this Tuesday. Fantasyland is a fantastic book, and I’ll be going out to meet Mr. Walker.

The Tigers split their two spring games this weekend. They lost to the Indians 11-8 on Saturday but they bounced back and beat the Pirates 4-1 today. The win today put the Tigers at 3-1 in the early, and less important, part of the spring season.

More important was the fact that both games were on the radio. Dan Dickerson and Jim Price shared the booth with Ernie Harwell, then got the job after Harwell retired. They’re beginning their fourth season in the booth together.

No offense to either man, but nobody in my eyes (or ears) can replace Ernie Harwell. Ernie Harwell’s voice is imprinted in my brain because throughout the summer, I fell asleep listening to his broadcasts with Paul Carey, another great broadcaster.

But I got to thinking the other day. My son, who will be two in a few months, will never get to hear Ernie Harwell. He will grow up with someone though, and I’d be happy if he grew up with Dickerson and Price. They call a great game and the banter between the two is enjoyable. I think Price adds a lot as a color man because he played the game and Dickerson really knows his stuff.

To learn more about Dan Dickerson, I highly recommend that you check out the interview he did for the Detroit Tigers Weblog. Great stuff.

The Tigers are losing ten players to the World Baseball Classic. Pool A was decided today with Korea upsetting the favorite, Japan. The two teams had locked up a spot in the next round but they were playing to see who would get the better seed and Korea edged Japan 3-2. The other three pools, in which all ten Tigers are playing, start on Tuesday.

Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett suffered a stroke today and the latest news was that he was having surgery. There’s no indication as to the extent of the damage, but I’m sure we’ll hear more on this tomorrow. I wish him the best of luck and speedy recovery. I know Puckett’s image was tarnished a bit when some domestic disputes came to light, but Puckett came up when I was in my early teens and I distinctly remember him taking the Tigers deep on more then one occassion. He was a solid fielder and a great hitter in his day.

Technically, spring is nearly three weeks away. For baseball fans, spring starts today as most of the teams, including the Tigers, begin their respective spring seasons. At 1 pm, the Tigers will square off against the Reds. I signed up for MLB.com’s Gameday Audio but unfortunately, they don’t let us listen or watch streaming audio/video so I’ll be shutout from listening the game (assuming it’s even on, AM1270 isn’t carrying it). Nate Robertson is expected to start and he’ll most likely throw three innings. Roman Colon, Jason Grilli, Chad Durbin, Fernando Rodney and Chris Spurling are all expected to get some time out on the mound.

Of course nothing matters less (to a team) then early spring training games. If the Tigers lose their first seven spring games, it’ll get some press, but it won’t mean too much. Same goes with if they win their first seven. Teams rarely play their starters the entire game and pitchers usually throw no more then three innings. So if Robertson gets shelled, I wouldn’t look too much into just as much as you shouldn’t look too much into the fact that some career minor leaguer goes yard twice.

With that though, spring is important for rounding out a teams roster and then there’s always the hope you find that one gem. Position battles will be decided over the next month as well. The Tigers need to decide on a fifth starter and they also have to decide what they’ll do in centerfield (although to me, Curtis Granderson is a no brainer). Most other spots are set, but Jim Leyland needs (or wants) to find a spot for Dmitri Young so we’ll probably see him at third base and in the outfield just to see what he can do. The rumor is, he came into camp in better shape, which is definitely a good thing.

The first game that will be on local radio will be this Saturday.

Korea and Chinese Taipei kick off the World Baseball Classic tonight. Set your VCRs (I know, I’m behind the time and haven’t gotten Tivo yet) because the game’s going to be shown at 1:30 am on ESPN2. The first live game is Friday morning at 4:30 am between Japan and China.

You wonder what all the other GM’s knew that Dave Dombrowski didn’t. The main reason Troy Percival came to Detroit was because we were the only team willing to give him a second year. I was cautiously optimistic when the Tigers signed him although I had come to hope he and Ugueth Urbina would make a solid one-two punch out of the pen.

Now Troy Percival’s left camp. After a rough simulated game, it appears that Percival hasn’t fully recovered from the muscle tear near his elbow and retirement appears likely. It wasn’t that long ago that Troy Percival was one of the most dominant closers in the league and he was celebrating a World Series win with the Angels. And while I’m sure Percival didn’t want to go out like this, he has nothing to be ashamed of after a stellar career.

Another thing I wanted to point out was how tough it is to make preseason predictions. I’ll have my Tiger preview at the Hardball Times here in the next couple of weeks, but at this point last year, we were talking about how bad Alex Sanchez was and how we were stacked with relief pitching. Before spring training broke, Sanchez was gone and by the time the trade deadline passed, all three of our best relievers were either injured or elsewhere.

Magglio Ordonez is going to sit out the World Baseball Classic and said he wanted to focus on getting ready for the 2006 season. I think this is a smart move, although I wouldn’t really blame him for wanting to play for his hometown team, Venezuela. Ordonez’s .436 slugging percentage was his worst season total since 1998, which was the year before he broke out. Hopefully the extra time in spring training will help him find his homerun swing.

***UPDATE***

Thanks to Ryan for the comment (and I later read this on Detroit Tigers Weblog). It looks like Ordonez will be playing in the WBC. He took some heat from Carlos Guillen, so he’s in.

This Thursday, the Tigers spring season starts with an afternoon game against the Reds. I’ll have to check WXYT’s radio schedule to see if this game’s on the radio, but man is it nice that baseball’s back. Then on Thursday (our time), the World Baseball Classic starts. I remember two years ago when the Yankees played the Devil Rays in Japan, it was cool watching baseball when I got up in the morning. This time it looks like they’ll be doing a lot of tape delays and that first game between Korea and Chinese Taipei will be aired at 1:30 am on ESPN 2. The first live game will be at 4:30 on March 3. I’ll have to think about getting up early to check out that game.

You can see the entire WBC television schedule here.

The Don Lund SABR chapter had their meeting this Saturday and I gave a brief presentation on the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006. David Fleitz followed me with a presentation on his book “Cap Anson: The Grand Old Man of Baseball.” Unfortunately he left before I was able to pick up one of his books from him. And then Steve Weingarden gave a very interesting presentation on the effect that the succession of general mangers have on a team. You can check out his entire dissertation at the Business of Baseball website.

I made it out to the Macomb County Library to meet Tom Stanton yesterday. Tom’s a great and was very personable and his wife, Beth, was charming as well. Tom gave a great presentation on his latest work, The Detroit Tigers Reader (which I highly recommend), and he was also nice enough to sign a copy for me. He also gave everyone the news on his next project which also sounds like a great read. The book will be about Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth’s initial animosity and then eventual friendship later in life.

I got my shipment of 2006 Topps Series 1 cards today and I’m going through packs and sorting the cards. I made sure I didn’t make the same mistake I made last time around. I should have plenty of extras but the goal is still get a set together for my son.

This year there’s a tribute to Mickey Mantle and I got a couple of the cards, including on which appears to be part of the regular set. They also have an insert set showing the individuals who signed the Declaration of Independence, which I thought was odd for a baseball set.

I probably don’t do a good enough job promoting my work over at the Hardball Times, but this week’s edition, which will be up tomorrow, has a book review that I highly recommend you check out. Sam Walker grew up in the Detroit area and he now writes for the Wall Street Journal. He recently published a book called Fantasyland, which details his season in an expert fantasy league. He had no prior experience with fantasy baseball, and he pulls out every stop he can to try to win the thing. It’s a really fun read, and I highly recommend it.

Kenny Rogers was chosen as the opening day starter by Jim Leyland today. Not sure if I agree with this. I think it should have gone to Bonderman or even Maroth. Someone who’s been with the team a little longer.

Tiger’s beat writer Jason Beck recently started his own blog. Be sure to stop by and say hello.

It’s hard to believe that this’ll be the fourth Tigers season I’ll be blogging. Spring training started for the Tigers last week and there’s not a ton of news to report although this is a good story on Magglio Ordonez from MLB.com’s Jason Beck. Ordonez reported to camp on Sunday and spent the day hitting. This is easy enough to say, but if the Tigers are going to improve on their 71 wins from last year, having a healthy Magglio Ordonez will go along way. I’m not looking for him to replicate what he did when he was in his prime for the White Sox, but even 25/90 would be a step up from what we’ve been getting out of right field anytime this decade.

PECOTA doesn’t project much out of Ordonez this season. His weighted mean has him at 377 at bats, 10 homeruns and a .288/.350/.440 line. His breakout rate is only 4% while his collapse rating is 38%. None of that is good if it comes true.

Tom Stanton is going to be at the Macomb County Library this Tuesday. I’m hoping to get out there to meet him. He’ll be talking about his latest, the Detroit Tiger Reader, which is a great read.

It’s been three and a half long dreary months, but things are looking up. Tigers’ pitchers and catchers report Wednesday, February 15. Good times are on the way.

I’m going to be moving Tigerblog from Movable Type over to WordPress over the next few weekends. So if there’s some times where you can’t get to the site, just bear with me while this gets done.

Catchy title. Vince Gennero has been putting out an excellent series of articles on player value at the Hardball Times. Tuesday’s column deals with teams who are close to making the playoffs, yet need that final piece to put them over the top.

One of his examples talks about how Brandon Inge would be more valuable to an 85 win Yankees team then Alex Rodriguez would be to a 65 win Tiger team because of the increased chances of the Yanks making the playoffs.

Also, you can check my already outdated Business of Baseball report. I went to bed thinking the council was done only to find out this morning that they got back together an hour after the real meeting ended and agreed on a lease. Guess I’ll have something to write about next week.

The Tigers signed outfielder Craig Monroe to a one year, $2.8 million deal. This was the Tigers’ sole remaining arbitration case so unless they sign a free agent, we pretty much know what they’re payroll is going to be next year (which I’ll look up and find for you).

Monroe’s one of those guys that I kind of wish we’d trade. He does well enough to ensure himself a starting outfield spot even though I think a guy like Curtis Granderson would be better out there if given a chance. And while Monroe did put up some solid traditional stats (20 homeruns, 89 RBIs), he has a career .313 OBP and his WHIP actually declined by over 50 points from 2004. So with that, I wouldn’t have minded the Tigers getting what they could for him before he has the one off year that causes his value to fall off of a cliff.

Since we have him though, hopefully he’s for real and we can expect 20-25 homeruns and 80-90 RBIs every year.

I finished The Detroit Tigers Reader this weekend, and was really impressed. It’s gotten to the point to where anything Tom Stanton puts out, I’ll pick up and read. Although he didn’t write this one, he edited it. It’s a collection of news stories about, you guessed it, the Tigers. The stories cover the Tigers 100+ year history and range from a glowing story on Ty Cobb to a more recent column on when Pudge came into town.

One of my favorites was an early Joe Falls article on Norm Cash. There’s a solid story on Kirk Gibson, along with Al Kaline’s and Ernie Harwell’s Hall of Fame acceptance speeches. There’s detailed stories on Micky Lolich, George Kell and Hal Newhouser, amongst others.

For Tigers’ fans, this is a much read. Each story is reasonable in size, ranging from two to ten pages so it’s a nice book to pick up and read when you only have a short period of time. I read the story in chunks and it gives you a nice flavor for each of the eras.

Also, John Sickels’ shipped the latest installment of his 2006 Baseball Prospect Book. I made a point to pick up the older editions, and the books are just fantastic. I’ve never purchased Baseball America’s Prospect Book, so I really have no basis of comparison, but you get a detailed analysis on a ton of prospects. Good stuff, and well worth the price.

Jeff Mathews is a guy I’ve been talking to via email quite a bit. He caught wind of the 1935 Tigers diary, and we’ve been debating the 1934 season and who “really” had a better team that year (although the concrete evidence is on his side). Jeff’s decided to start a St. Louis Cardinals blog named the Gas House Gang, and he’ll be doing a 1926 Cardinals diary this year to commemorate the first World Series win in Cardinals history. Be sure the check him out at http://www.stlouiscardsblog.com.

The Tigers made some progress in solidifying their team today by agreeing to terms with three of the four players that filed for arbitration. Jeremy Bonderman will make $2.3 million next year in a one year deal. I was on the fence as to whether Bonderman should get a longer term deal or not, and it looks like Dave Dombrowski is being prudent and waiting one more year to see if Bonderman is worth the huge payout or not.

Chris Spurling will make $725,000. He’ll never overpower anyone (26 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings) but he was pretty effective against both righties and lefties. The most interesting thing about Spurling is his home/road split. He seems to really take advantage of Comerica park to the tune of a 1.03 WHIP, .197 batting average against and a 1.66 ERA. On the road, those numbers balloon to a 1.26 WHIP, .264 batting average against and a 5.51 ERA.

Carlos Pena earned himself a paycheck by having a strong August and September after being sent down to AAA. He’ll make $2.8 million, but in a lot of ways, he’s the odd man out. Dmitri Young, for better or worse, will probably get the nod as the DH leaving Pena and Shelton to split time. Shelton earned the job with a strong season (not just a month and a half) so this will probably be one of the more interesting position battles this spring.

Craig Monroe is the guy who hasn’t signed yet. He put up solid numbers, but he’s pretty replaceable so I think the Tigers are going to be stuck paying him more then they’d like whether he ends up in arbitration or not.

Everyone’s favorite obnoxious Yankees’ fan has moved. You can now find Baseball’s Savior at

http://www.baseballsavior.com

It’s looking like Bruce Sutter’s election into the Hall of Fame could be the most controversial since former Tiger George Kell’s induction in 1983. I think the whole Goose Gossage/Bruce Sutter thing has been beaten to death, including by myself, so lets go off on a tangent with this comparison.

(Sorry, I played with the spacing but couldn’t quite get this to work).

            Player 1   Player 2

Games            545        661

IP            1,242      1,042.3

Runs             438        370

ER              391        328

BB              535        309

SO             1,036        861

ERA            2.83       2.83

RSAA             136        123

HR              110         77

H/9            7.54       7.59

BR/9           11.50     10.37 

SO/9            7.51       7.43

BB/9            3.88       2.67

SO/BB            1.94      2.79

Wins             87         68

Losses          76         71

Neutral W        105         86 

Neutral L       58         53

PRAR             531        507

DERA           3.42       3.52

Saves           125        300

Okay, that’s a lot of numbers. What’s interesting is both players have idential ERA’s. Pitcher number 1 threw more innings but gave up about one more walk per inning then player two. Player one gave up more homeruns but both had very good rates per nine innings (player 1 0.797 vs player 2 0.665). All in all, if you look at both the raw numbers and the rate numbers, these players are pretty similar.

The big difference is in saves. Player 2 played in a era when saves were the thing, while Player 1 started his career in the mid-60s when the save didn’t yet exist. But it’s worth noting that while Player 1 only racked up 125 saves, he held the single season save record (38) for ten years until Dan Quisenberry broke it in 1983 with 45. Player 2 then tied Quisenberry’s record until it was broken a year later by Dave Righetti.

Player 1 is also credited with having the best relief season in the history of baseball. This is documented in both The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract and Baseball Prospectus 2006. A year after that historic season, Player 1 won a record (that still stands) 17 games in relief. Player 2 has the 16th and 19th best relief seasons according to Baseball Prospectus 2006.

Player 2 is easy because his numbers have been thrown around so much of late. Player 1 is John Hiller who in his first year on the ballot for the Hall of Fame in 1986, received 11 votes or 2.59% and never showed up on the ballot again.

So while I’m not surprised Sutter got in, it’s make you wonder what these voters are thinking. The good news is, it bodes well for Bert Blyleven. It took Sutter nine years to break through the 50% mark and three years later he’s in. So I’m hoping we’ll be praising the BWAA at this time in 2008 for finally voting Blyleven in.

And John Hiller is one of my favorite Tigers and is a great case study because he was one of the last great relief pitchers in the era before the save became popular. Back in 2003, I took a look at John Hiller’s 1973 season along with a little editorial on my thoughts on the save. This was one of my first posts when I started the site and it’s interesting (for me, probablly not for you) going back and looking at how my writing has changed since then.

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