Archive for the '2006 Tigers' Category

Back in late February, we had our local SABR chapter (Don Lund chapter) meeting.  At the meeting, there were a couple of great presentations and one mediocre one (it was by some Hardball Times writer).  At the end of the meeting, a gentleman by the name of Mark Plawecki gave an impromptu presentation on his upcoming book that rates pitchers.  He gave enough information to to make me curious so I began talking to him about it via email.

And now his book is out and it’s called How Could You Trade Billy Pierce? – Essays and Analyses of MLB’s Best Pitchers (1901-2005).  In the book, he introduces his formula for rating pitchers called Park Adjusted Pitching Average (PAPA).  I don’t want to give too much away, but it basically takes how many times a pitcher got a batter out compared to the league average and it blends it with how many runs he gave up compared to the league average.  It’s not too difficult of a calculation to where a non-stathead like me could understand it (I try to think I’m getting better) but it also takes out some more well known, and deceptive, figures thrown around in the main stream media.  For example, wins and losses don’t play into the equation at all, and I like that.  A pitcher could get a win because he got some great offense, some great defense, some great relief pitching, or all of the above.  In fact he could have a rough start and still pick up a win.  PAPA takes all of that out and measures how a pitcher performs specifically on what that pitcher does.

And the ultimate numbers make a ton of sense.  If you flip to 1968 you’ve got Bob Gibson first and Denny McClain second.  Can’t argue too much with that.  In 2005, a lot of people argued against Bartolo Colon winning the Cy Young, and according to PAPA, he wasn’t deserving. At the top of the list are Roger Clemens and Johan Santana, who were obviously the best pitchers sans their win/loss record.  And in 1961, the Tigers dominated the list.  Jim Bunning and Frank Lary came in at one and two and then further down the list is Don Mossi at eight.

Okay, now you’re probably thinking, what do I get with the book.  And my response is, “a lot.”  The first part of the book is the largest, and it breaks down each season.  You get a well written essay on a highlighted pitcher and then you get that year’s top ten PAPA leaders.  You also get the winner of what Mr. Plawecki calls the Foran Award, which is the pitcher with the best PAPA that finished with a losing record that season.  And you also get that season’s World Series gem.  Occasionally, you’ll also get a list.  The 1968 write up has the top ten single season PAPA’s from 1919 through 1993 because the top guy on that list was Gibson in 1968.  After 105 of those, you’d figure the book would be well worth the $13 at Amazon.com, but hold on because you get more.

At the back of the book, you get a series of lists that attempt to break down who the greatest pitchers are.  You get a top 25 list based on peak value and a top 25 list based on career value as well as some back up information that was used to compile PAPA (like average innings pitched).

In conclusion, I really liked this book and I can see myself referring back to it often.  And it has a little of something for everyone.  Essays for those looking for some history, lists for those looking to compare some of the greats and commentary on each of the seasons so you know which teams had the best pitching in a given season.

Alright, I started this project thinking people might need a lift by now, but who would have thought three months ago that the Tigers would be the best team in baseball.  Anyway, I took the 1984 aspects of my site (the diaries, news on Tram and the debate I had where I took the 1984 Tigers head to head against the 1975 Reds) and categorized them and copied everything over to what I’m currently calling the 1984 Tigers Tribute Site.  It’s not going to be too active, but if you ever wanted to check out all of the times I mention Willie Hernandez in the diary or Dave Bergman’s 13 pitch at bat that ends in a walk off homerun, then it’s way easier to find then it would be here.  I’ll also be updating the site periodically as I pick up news on the players and coaches of the team (Tram’s next managerial job?) and I’ll probably highlight my posts here because they won’t be very frequent.

I’ve always enjoyed Pat Caputo’s commentary on the radio.  He really knows his stuff when it comes to baseball and he was the Tigers beat writer for the Oakland Press.  He’s probably forgotten more about baseball then I know (then again, he really hasn’t forgotten much, hence the nickname The Book).  Mr. Caputo’s started a blog called Open Book and his latest post is about the National League’s troubles in the All Star game.

Comerica Park is host to the First Ever Hebrew National Higher Authority Hawker Award.  Basically it’s a contest for the most unique hot dog vendor.  The contest will conclude on July 21 in a finalist show down during the pregame of the Tigers game with the Oakland A’s.  You can the download the press release if you’re interested in the checking out the specifics.  My money’s on Charlie, who’s a great sales man and a treat at the ball park.

With the All Star game set to start, I thought back to All Star games past to see if I had any distinct memories and realized I have several.  I remember betting my mom a nickel on every All Star game as a kid.  I took the American League and she took the National League.  It was the 1980s, so I lost a lot of nickels.  I remember watching the 1981 All Star Game (I had just turned 10) at my Uncle Heinie’s cabin (I want to say it was in Dodge City, MI but I could be wrong).  I also remember seeing four Tigers on the field at one time in the 1984 All Star Game.  Lou Whitaker, Chet Lemon, Jack Morris and Lance Parrish all played at the same time.  And then there was the 1983 All Star game, which was one of the biggest blowouts ever.  Fred Lynn hit the first grand slam ever in an All Star game.  My all time favorite game was 1987.  The game went late into the night and the National League won it 2-0 in 13 innings on a Tim Raines two run triple.

As my son gets older, I hope he’ll enjoy baseball as much as I do and that we’ll have All Star memories of our own.

John Sickels did his mid-year review of his preseason prospect list.  Great stuff as always from John, and if you want some awesome prospect coverage, I highly recommend you subscribe to his newletter.  One nice thing in his writeup is the top three are all living up to their billing.  The bad news is, the Tigers don’t have a ton of depth.  You have to go all the way down to Humberto Sanchez to find someone else who’s doing pretty well. 

All right, I’ve resisted talking about the Tigers and the playoffs up until now, but it’s the second half.  And the first eight days after the All Star break could go a long way towards who ends up in the postseason.  The Tigers start out with a four game series against the Royals, which they should win at least three of four.  The White Sox then square off against the Yankees, which is almost like a no lose for us.  If the White Sox win, then the Yankees get buried and the Tigers build a larger lead for the Wild Card.  If the Yankees win, then Tigers cushion in the AL Central should get better assuming the Tigers take care of business against the Royals.

Then right after that, we get a three game series against the White Sox.  I’ll be going to the day game on Thursday (and with some White Sox fans) so it should be a good time.  If the Tigers can go 5-2 over that seven game stretch, they’ll have a larger cushion whether it’s over the Yankees or the White Sox.

And if you like numbers, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Monte Carlo simulation, the Tigers have a 93.6% chance of making the playoffs.  Even the White Sox have a nice chance with 70.9%.  Only the Mets have a better chance at 98.7% and the Tigers have the most expected wins at 102.

So at this point, for the Tigers not to make the playoffs, you’d need a pretty heavy duty collapse.  Hopefully Jim Leyland can keep things together and here’s to enjoying what’s hopefully as good of a second half.

I still really enjoy the All Star Game.  The actual game, that is.  Maybe it’s the fact that, back when I grew up, the game seemed to have more meaning (to the players) and it was a way to see players you normally wouldn’t get to see.  Last night I watched two different National League games on television and interleague play has also watered things down.  I think the whole “World Series Home Field Advantage Thing” is a joke as well, but I’ll watch at least most of the game.

If the Tigers win today, they’ll have 60 wins heading into the All Star break.  The last time that’s happened was, well, never.  In 1984 they had 57 wins and that’s the most I could find (I didn’t look at every season’s log, but I checked the years where I’d expect them to be close).

This is more of a question then commentary.  I’ve been hearing a lot about how the Home Run Derby ruins a hitter’s swing.  Everyone points to Bobby Abreau, who seems to be in somewhat of a power slump since he won it last year.  Maybe I’m just being naive, but when I played softball, I had enough sense to “fix” my swing if I wasn’t hitting well.  I just don’t see how the derby can mess up a professional hitter’s swing to the point where it can’t be fixed relatively quickly.  If someone knows the answer to this, I’d love to hear it.  Then again, Bobby Abreau is having a fine season, he’s just not hitting homeruns and that’s what most people look at.

I also enjoy the Futures game, but I’m not sure if I’ll be able to catch that due to a family obligation.  Cameron Maybin and Humberto Sanchez are the two Tigers highlighted   I’ve done a better job of keeping track of prospects (mostly due to Minor League Ball), so when I saw the rosters, I recognized quite a few names.  Maybe next year.

This has come up frequently in the comments so it’s time to put some numbers to it.  How much is having Craig Monroe in the lineup hurting our team?  In looking at today’s starting lineup, two things jumped out at me.  Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge have a pretty low batting average compared to everyone else.  Even Alexis Gomez is hitting around .280.  Inge has an excuse because he’s out there just as much for his glove then anything.  While his hitting has been below average, he already has 12 fielding runs above average.  Last year, he had 13 total and he was a top five third baseman.  So I can live with that.

From a corner outfielder, that’s an entirely different matter.  Right now, Craig Monroe has a zero Batting Runs Above Replacement.  Let that sink in for a minute.  In 253 at bats, Monroe has hit about as good as you’d expect a decent AAA guy would hit if he were called up to fill in a spot.  That’s not good so that’s one strike against Monroe.

He’s actually done okay with the glove.  He has two fielding runs above average so he hasn’t hurt us there, but you also have to keep in mind who he’s taking at bats away from.  Marcus Thames has played in 58 games and has 192 at bats.  So there have been 27 games where he hasn’t even touched the field (or the plate).  So he’s only played in 2/3 of the team’s games.  With 21 batting runs above replacement so far this season, Thames could easily be up close 25 or 30 at his current pace.  So if you take what Thames has lost because the team’s stuck with Monroe, you have about five to ten runs, or about one win.

The latest guy who’s been named in a Tiger trade rumor has been Sean Casey, and it sends a shiver up my spine.  Yes, he’s a career .305 hitter, but he also grounds into a ton of double plays.  27 last year alone.  He’s also been hurt this year and his last good season was 2004.

On the radio, a bigger deal was made about the fact that Leyland didn’t have Monroe bunt in the tenth after Carlos Guillen got to second on a stolen base then the botched hit and run attempt in the fifth.  While I’m sure Jim Leyland’s reasoning was that he didn’t want Wilson to hit into a double play, I agree with the Dan and think it was a bad move.  Vance Wilson is a career .250 hitter and a back up catcher and you can’t expect him to make contact consistently nor should you expect Chris Shelton to be able to run it out and get the stolen base.  The net result was one run, which was the difference in the game.

The Tigers won today and they avoided the sweep. Now it’s on to Seattle for a three game set before the All Star game. Part of me doesn’t want Justin Verlander to win that final spot on the team because I think he’d be better off with the rest. As it stands, it looks like Francisco Liriano is in the driver’s seat right now.

While I tune in to just about every Tiger game, rarely do I ever get to watch or listen to even close to an entire game.  Today I got to watch the Tigers from the second inning on and it was a good one.  Once again, Fernando Rodeny got into trouble with his walks.  He now has 22 in 39 2/3 innings but that isn’t as noteworthy as how they come.  The last time he gave up two walks, he lost the game on June 6 against the White Sox.  The Tigers have one of the best defences in the game.  Throw the ball over the plate, just keep the ball down and that infield defense will take care of things.  Don’t put the winning run on base without having the other team work for it.

Most of you will be reading this tomorrow (Wed.), which is my 35th birthday.  I picked the wrong profession because with quarter end, I won’t be able to enjoy it much because I’ll probably have to work late.  Hopefully the Tigers will win tomorrow though, and avoid getting swept.  Other then that, I have everything I need or want.

I know this is a baseball blog, but Steve Yzerman sort of transcends the whole sports blogosphere.  Steve Yzerman announced his retirement today and I have to say it was an honor and a privelage to have him as a player in Detroit.  He’s a class act and will go down as one of the top ten athletes to ever play for a Detroit team.  He played for the Red Wings since he was drafted in 1983 and he was the cornerstone of three Stanley Cup championships.  I wish Mr. Yzerman the best in the next stage of his life.

A lot of people, including myself, are worried about the Tiger’s rotation in the second half.  Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson have had poor second halfs the last two seasons and both Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander were shut down in September last season.  Outside of Rogers, the only Tiger to ever log 200 innings in a season is Mike Maroth, and he’s sitting on the disabled list.  If the Tiger’s rotation does as well in the second half as it did in the first, it will be the miracle the likes of, well, the Tigers having the best record in baseball in July.  I guess ANYTHING can happen, but there is some good news.

Probably because of the strength of the Tiger’s pen, Jim Leyland has been able to save the starter’s arms.  A case in point was last week when Justin Verlander had a shutout through eight innings.  Rather then bringing him in for a ninth inning to notch a complete game shutout, he instead went to Jason Grilli.  This was smart baseball.  Each of these guy’s arms have limits.  So far we don’t know what those limits are because you never know until you get there.

Baseball Prospectus has a measure called Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP).  Here’s a column on it’s history although this was written in 2004 so it could have been refined since.  Basically it works just like it sounds and it’s a measure of a pitcher’s usage.  Higher PAP, more abuse and the more chance of a breakdown in the near future.  There are guys like Livan Hernandez who seem to defy the odds.  So it’s interesting looking at this to see which manager’s are riding their starters or to see where the Tiger starters are at.

And this is where the good news is.  The first Tiger is Nate Robertson but he’s way down at 37.  He did max out in one start at 120 pitches, but his average per start is only 95.  Since he’s had a number of quality starts, that means he’s going later in the game yet still not throwing an exorbiant number of pitches.  I think this qualifies as good.

Next on the list is Justin Verlander at 41.  Now here’s where I lose the logic because his average number of pitches is great then Robertson as is his total number of pitches.  Yet Verlander is a few notches below Robertson.  Jeremy Bonderman is way down at 59.

So my point, without knowing exactly how PAP works, is that the Leyland has done a pretty good job with his starters.  We’re in first place and it doesn’t seem like he’s had to ride his starters.

At this point in time, Kenny Rogers and Ivan Rodriguez are your Tiger representatives at the All Star Game.  I only caught bits and pieces of the announcements on ESPN, but it looks like Justin Verlander has a shot in the ESPN vote off that they’ve done the past couple of seasons so it could end up at three.  His stiffest competition will probably be from Francisco Liriano.  I’m not completely surprised because of the rules (every team has to have a player), but the most conspicuous abscense will be Magglio Ordonez.  You wonder how much his feud with Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox played into that.  Regardless, I didn’t see anybody in the outfield that wasn’t deserving so it was definitely a tough choice.

Former Tiger Mark Redman will be in his first All Star game, more because of the team he plays for then his on field performance.  Redman has a 5-4 record and a 5.59 ERA with a dead even 30/30 strikeout to walk ratio.  I would have thought Mark Grudzielanek might get the spot because he’s second base, but Jose Lopez was very deserving and he ended up getting the back up spot there.

Six White Sox made it and while that sounds like a lot, none of the guys Guillen brought in were questionable and it could have been a whole lot worse.  You could have made a case for A.J. Pierzynski, Joe Crede and Tad Iguchi.  All have had solid seasons.  Anyway, it’s tough when you’re a manager because just about every player gets a bonus for making the All Star team so the players who get snubbed lose out on several thousand dollars.  And when it’s you’re own manager snubbing you, it doesn’t make for a comfortable club house.

The Tigers won two of three in Pittsburgh and they certainly did make things interesting.  Todd Jones got into trouble today but pitched out of his own jam.  Zach Miner picked up the win and he’s now 5-1 despite Fernando Rodney and Roman Colon giving up six runs in the seventh inning to make it a one run game.  Miner has now won four straight starts   The White Sox lost so the Tigers lead is back to 2 1/2 games.  If the Yankees lose tonight to the Mets, the Tigers lead for the Wild Card spot will be a nice, comfy nine and a half games.

Looks like Raffy is looking to come back.  Even with an off year last year, he had an above average OPS+ and he’s left handed, which Dave Dombrowski seems to be hung up on.  He’d probably be cheap as well.  Plus you’d get the hype of seeing him move of the homerun chain.

Then you could bat Thames as a DH against lefties and have Monroe play LF against lefties and Thames against righties so Thames gets as much time as possible.

Thoughts?

While this isn’t encouraging, it’s definitlely something to think about over the next couple of offseasons.  Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus listed the top 15 catching prospects.  None of them are Tigers, although if memory serves me right, the Tigers used a higher draft pick in this most recent draft on a catcher.  Regardless, as Pudge gets a little older, it’s something Dave Dombrowski has to consider, if not this winter, then next.

Back in 2003 (yes, the Tigers did play that season), Jeremy Bonderman made his debut.  While nobody ever admitted it, I had the feeling that Bonderman got wheeled out there prematurely because management thought he might have a good season and be a draw for home games a la Mark Fidrych.  That never panned out, but this year the Tigers have not one, but two rookie sensations.  One of those rookies threw eight shutout innings today and he gave up only three hits with no walks while striking out seven.  Justin Verlander is now 10-4 and we’re at the half way point of the season and what’s funny is now that we have a phenom of our own, he’s being overshadowed by what the team is doing.

The win today was the Tigers 11th shutout of the season, the most they’ve put up in a season since 1978 when they had twelve.  If they get two more, which seems likely, you’d have to go back to 1969 when they had 18.

Not to be overshadowed by Verlander was Nate Robertson’s outing on Tuesday against Roger Clemens.  He outlasted the future Hall of Famer and while he got into trouble in the seventh and had a runner on third with nobody out, Jim Leyland let him pitch out of it and he got rewarded with a win.  Robertson threw seven shutout innings and he gave up six hits and three runs.  Out of the regular starters, Robertson has the best ERA with 3.14, which is good for third in the American League behind Johan Santana and Roy Halladay.

With the shutout today, the Tigers have a team ERA of 3.45.  If the season finished today, that would be the best team ERA the team’s posted since, yet again, 1969 (3.32).

1984 happened a long time ago but everyone remembers their 35-5 start.  What a lot of people don’t remember is that they were equally mediocre over their next 40 games and went through that stretch with an even 20-20 record.  If the Tigers win their game on Friday against the Pirates, they’ll have matched the 1984 Tigers’ record (55-25) through the first 80 games.

The Pirates are on deck, and if they lose today against the White Sox, it’ll be their 13th straight loss.  Normally I’d say the Tigers will be the Tigers and they’ll drop two of three, but this isn’t your usual Tiger team.  I see them following the White Sox and taking at least two of three, if not sweeping the weekend series.  Then the Tigers head out west for six games before the All Star Break.

Humberto Sanchez’s name has been thrown around all over talk radio the past couple of days, and it’s possibly for the wrong reason.  After three mediocre seasons in A and AA ball, Sanchez has had a breakout performance.  He started the season in Erie and in eleven starts, he went 5-3 with a 1.76 ERA and he struck out 86 in 71 2/3.  He then got promoted to Toledo and proceeded to win the International League player of the week.  Since getting the promotion, he’s given up only one run in nineteen innings and he’s struck out 17 batters in 19 innings.

Pretty good numbers, and the reason his name is being thrown around is, because many people think Joel Zumaya and Justin Verlander are just about untouchable, that Sanchez appears to be the primary trade bait to help put the team over the top.  A lot of names have been mentioned in trade rumors, but the two who appear to be the most prevalent are Carl Crawford and John Smoltz.

I think trading for Crawford would be a big mistake.  Yes, he’s definitely got some speed and he’s having a career year at the plate as far as homeruns, but his fielding has been off (-2 fielding runs above replacement) and he’s actually on pace to have fewer extra base hits then he’s had the last few years.  His homeruns are up (10) but his doubles and triples are way down.  I just don’t see him being that much of an upgrade over Marcus Thames.

John Smoltz is a different matter.  Even with the solid pitching by Zach Miner, having John Smoltz in the front of this rotation would be huge come playoff time.  The question then would be, would I trade Sanchez for Smoltz.

I say, absolutely.  And for a couple of different reasons.  One reason is, Sanchez hasn’t done much until this year and he was never really highly touted so I’m wondering whether he’s even for real.  John Sickels gave him a C rating in his prospect book although he does say Sanchez could be really good (or really bad, or somewhere in between).  Also, I think Baseball Prospectus’ mantra of “there is not such thing as a pitching prospect” would be another reason.  Sanchez isn’t a sure thing.  Smoltz is pretty close to one.

The ultimate irony of all this is, the Tigers traded John Smoltz, a pitching prospect at the time, for Doyle Alexander way back in 1987.  A lot of people blast that trade but I still think it was a good deal.  We wouldn’t have made the playoffs without Alexander, who went 9-0 down the stretch. And while we didn’t win the World Series, we would have never even had a chance without him.  So to now trade a pitching prospect for John Smoltz is, well, odd.

I’m probably going to get blasted for this, but I think if Joel Zumaya’s future is as a closer, I’d rather see him get shipped out.  As good of a closer as he could be, that doesn’t make up for a quality starter.  Just my two cents.

In case you missed my rant about the city of Detroit tearing down Tiger Stadium, you can either check it out below this post or you can click here.

Kenny Rogers won his 200th career game this afternoon.  He got a ton of run support and the end result of all this was another sweep for the Tigers, this time at the Cubs expense.  The White Sox just won’t let up though because they swept the Reds.  So we still have a game and a half lead despite winning eight of our last ten games.

Mark Prior looked very rough in his first start of the season today.  His offspeed stuff wasn’t working, and he wasn’t putting his fastball where he wanted it to go.  On top of that, his velocity was down closer to 90, which made this look more like a slow pitch softball game in the first inning.  Brandon Inge and Chris Shelton both homered twice and the Tigers tied a team record with eight homeruns in the game.

While the Tigers might be the positive surprise of the season, the Cleveland Indians are probably the negative surprise.  The Twins have now passed the Indians in the AL Central after a seven game winning streak and the Indians are now six games below .500.  This was the team that was supposed to compete with the White Sox in the central, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening.  The primary culprit has been their pitching.  Last year, they led the league with a 3.61 ERA.  This year, they’re at 4.91.  The offense is good, but it’s not that good.  I took some heat for saying Kenny Rogers would be an upgrade over Jason Johnson back when we signed Rogers, and Johnson is sitting at 3-7 with a 6.00 ERA.

The Tigers hop on a plane and start a three game series with the Brewers tomorrow.  The Brewers got off to that really good start out of the gate, but they’ve settled back to .500.  They’re riding a three game winning streak though.  All we can do is keep on winning if we want to stay ahead.

It’s funny how a good couple of months can change everyone’s perspective.  Even with a bad team in town like the Devil Rays, I would normally be happy with winning three of four.  And ironically, I expected to lose a game, but it wasn’t the one we actually lost.  I thought either Verlander would lose to Kazmir (and in a way, he did) or Zach Miner would drop his start.  Instead, it was the Kenny Rogers game that the team dropped.

And in that game, the rollercoaster struck again.  After a perfect eleventh inning, Todd Jones ran into all sorts of trouble in the twelth and ended up yielding four runs.  Worst of all, he hit Rocco Baldelli with two outs to load the bases before giving up back to back doubles and those four runs.  And while the offense can be held somewhat at fault for this one (one run, five hits over twelve innings), Todd Jones is really making things tough for this team the past couple of weeks.  Not only has he done a poor job, but he’s obliterating any value he might have on the trade market.

Regardless, it was another series win.  It looks like the White Sox are going to lose today, so we’ll still have the best record in baseball and we’ll have a nice 2 1/2 game lead in the AL Central.

Zach Miner had another nice start today and he’s now 2-1.  He threw 108 pitches and gave up only three hits over seven innings.  That Kyle Farnsworth deal is looking better and better.  I keep hearing late July/early August for Mike Maroth’s return, so hopefully he’ll be able to keep at least some of this up until then.

Wil Ledezma was called up from Toledo and it looks like he’ll be coming out of the pen.  He walked one and struck out two in the eighth today in his season debut.  Last year, Ledezma was billed as the next Johan Santana, mostly because he was a rule five guy and he’s left handed like Santana.  He fell on his face early and has played for Toledo pretty much since.

The Tigers play three at Wrigley field this weekend.  And true to Wrigley field, all three games are day games.  The White Sox travel to Cincinnati.

After a rough patch the past couple of weeks, the Tigers have now rattled off four straight wins.  Last night’s game was particularly important because after a series of days, the bullpen had been taxed.  The team didn’t get a day off on Monday, so one of two things had to happen on Tuesday.  Fortunately, the Tigers accomplished both of those things.

Step one to resting your bullpen is getting a nice long start from your starter.  Kenny Rogers went eight innings, something he had only done twice prior to this in 2006.  That’s the easy one.  The longer your starters go, the less you need your pen.

The second thing, which is probably just as is important, is scoring some runs and the Tigers did that as well last night.   Even if Rogers left after seven innings, they could have went to the back end of their bullpen to finish the game.  In this one, they only needed one inning from Jason Grilli.  If the bats weren’t there and the game was close then Leyland would have been forced to either pitch one of his front end bullpen guys on short rest or risk the game by throwing someone like Grilli in a high leverage situation.

The White Sox have kept pace with the Tigers over the past few days and they still sit a game and a half back.  Just as important, the Tigers have outplayed the Yankees and Red Sox, so they’ve created a larger cushion (4 1/2 games) when it comes to the wild card.

Jeremy Bonderman throws against Mark Hendrickson tonight.  One more win, and the Tigers will have matched their season win total for 2003.

Prior to the losing their previous three series, the bullpen was looked at as a major strength for the Tigers.  Todd Jones had only blown one game and both Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya were throwing extremely well.  Since then, Jones has blown three games and Rodney looks like he can’t get into a game without walking a couple of guys.  Zumaya has been the one guy to throw consistently well through this tough patch.

Today, Jim Leyland appeared to make the right decision by leaving Joel Zumaya in there for three innings however I say he was pretty much forced too.  Todd Jones had thrown in the previous three games and while Rodney had the day off on Saturday, he had thrown both Thursday and Friday.  Zumaya, on the other hand, had only thrown 1 2/3 over the previous four days.  So before you give Leyland too much credit, lets see how he handles the pen over the next week to see if he’s really changed his ways.

The other thing to note is, Jamie Walker has quietly put up some very nice numbers.  He’s struck out 16 and only walked one and he has a rock solid 0.95 ERA.  He’s thrown only 19 innings and his numbers probably warrant some more use.  What’s even more odd is, he’s completely shutting down right handers, who are hitting only .150 against him.  Both homeruns that he’s given up have come against lefties although his strikeout numbers aren’t nearly impressive against righties.  This is a nice guy to have in the hole as your fourth reliever and, along with about fifty other reasons, makes Todd Jones expendable.

The Tigers won their first series since they took two of three against the Indians two weeks ago.  Regardless of whether the White Sox win or lose tonight, the Tigers will remain in first place heading into their four game series with the Devil Rays.  There’s a very nice pitching matchup tomorrow with two young guns going head to head.  Scott Kazmir is having a breakout season and he’ll lock horns with Justin Verlander.  Just looking at the pitching matchups, I’d be disappointed if we didn’t come out of this series with three of four.

Prior to today’s game, the Tigers still led the majors in ERA, just a tenth of run better then the New York Mets.  They’re still treading dangerously though.  They’re letting guys get on base, but their 76% left on base percentage is best in the majors so they’re able to get out of jams.  Not sure how much of that is Todd Jones, but it looks like more of a “bend but don’t break” pitching strategy and their strikeouts per nine innings of 6.1 (which is exactly the league average) sort of bears that out.  You just wonder how much longer they’ll be able to keep it up.

Zach Miner picked up his first career win on Saturday.  He threw six innings and gave up two runs on four hits and one walk with five strikeouts.  Lyle Overbay took him deep for a two run shot to account for the two runs.  There’s really not a lot on Miner that I could find other then that he was the guy who came over with Roman Colon in the Kyle Farnsworth trade.  He’s already 24 so he’s old for a prospect.  I had to go all the way back to John Sickel’s 2005 Prospect Book and while he did say that Miner had one of the better arms in the Braves system at the time, he gave him his worst grade (C).  But he faced a top notch offense in Toronto and came out looking good, so hopefully the kid will be able to keep it up.

The Tigers took the final game of the White Sox series to avoid the sweep.  Had they lost, they would have dropped out of first place, and fortunately they salvaged that last game win.  As it stands, we’re tied 2-2 with the Blue Jays, and it’d be nice to use this win to build some momentum.

I’m not sure what Marcus Thames did to someone of power in the Tigers organization.  For the last two years, he’s been buried in favor of Craig Monroe despite the fact that they’re pretty much the same type of players.  This year though, Thames has thrived on his part time role while Monroe has faltered, and with the ankle injury to Monroe, Thames is finally going to get his chance.  He had 11 homeruns in 110 at bats heading into todays game and he has an OPS of 1.094.  You would have thought he’d get a chance sooner, but the mind of major league managers work in mysterious ways.

When the best player in the draft falls into your lap, you have to take him.  The big knock on Andrew Miller wasn’t that he couldn’t throw, it was that he was going to cost whoever drafted him.  He was billed as the best player in the draft, and he’s a Detroit Tiger.  Jeff Passan has an excellent column on Miller so be to check it out.

This is an encouraging sign for the franchise.  It shows that Mike Illitch is willing to open up his pocket book to create some homegrown talent.

 

We’re back from our trip, and while it was relatively stressful at times, overall it was a very nice time.  My son got to meet Winnie the Pooh, Tigger and Stitch, as well as a handful of other characters, and along the way, we made a stop at Tropicana Field to see the Devil Rays play the Toronto Blue Jays.  We sat just outside the new picnic area that the new managing partner had installed this year and overall, it was a nice park for being indoors.  My wife loved the fact that it was air conditioned and with the Devil Rays second to last to their Florida brethren Marlins in attendance, it made for decent family experience because it wasn’t too crowded.  I was impressed with the fans that were there, even if it was a pretty sparse crowd.  My family left early and I moved up to around the third base line after that and had a pretty good view of the rest of the game.

Just a couple of things of note, there’s no upper deck in right field but the upper deck along the first base line goes way up.  It’s pretty assymetrical.  Reed Johnson opened up the game with a homerun on the second pitch and then he homered again in the ninth to cap off a career day.  This is worth noting because I picked up Johnson for my fantasy because I’m short on runs and Johnson was my best option at the time.  I rewarded him by dropping him this week in favor of a hot Matt Kemp out in LA.

The Tigers play three in Chicago against the White Sox starting today.  Nate Robertson kicks things off against Freddy Garcia and hopefully the Tigers can set the stage by winning tonight.  A sweep would be huge and would give us a 5 1/2 game lead, although even if we drop two of three, we’ll still be in first place.  Neither the White Sox nor the Tigers have been playing great, so it seems like whoever can pick themselves up first will go a long way towards gaining ground in the division.

I’m going to stand by what I said in my column about Todd Jones being the closer.  I know he blew Friday night’s game, but that’s going to happen regardless of who we have in there.  Mariano Rivera has two losses and one blown save, and Todd Jones has two blown saves and three losses, although on Friday he had one of each.  It happens to the best and worst closers and all I was trying to say was, I’d rather have Jones coming in where a couple of hits won’t hurt him versus bringing him in with runners on in a key situation in one of the later innings.

And I did write this with the assumption that we were stuck with Jones.  I argued against spending $5 million per on him when it happened and while he hasn’t been “horrible” this year, he hasn’t yet warranted the salary.

Todd Jones was the losing pitcher yesterday, and it seems like whenever he loses a game or blows a save, everyone comes out of the woodwork to proclaim that he shouldn’t be the team’s closer.  In my opinion, I think Jones is best left where he’s at for the simple reason that 1)  I think he’s the third best reliever on the team (at least at this stage of their careers) and 2)  closing usually puts a reliever in a lower leverage situation then a middle reliever.

We can use last night’s game as an example.  The Tigers were down by two runs and the Yankees had one on and one out in the sixth inning.  The Tigers were down 6-4 and any additional runs would severely hamper the team’s chances at coming back.  I’d much rather have Joel Zumaya in that situation then having him wasted by bringing him in the ninth inning with nobody out and a two run lead.  Zumaya then got Alex Rodriguez to fly out and then he struck out Jorge Posada.  He finished the game with 2 1/3 innings and gave up only one hit with four strikeouts.  He left the game and the Tigers were still only down by one run game so he increased the Tigers chances of staging a comeback.

By the end of the game, the only player who would have a higher Win Probability Added (WPA) was the other Tiger reliever who I think is better then Todd Jones.  Fernando Rodney got the final hitter out in the eighth and pitched a shutout ninth.  During that time, the Tigers tied the game up.  The game went into extra frames and Todd Jones took the loss.

So the question is, do you want Jones closing games, or would you have put him into any of the above situtation and expected him to do any better.  I’m of the opinion that Leyland played this one right on the money, he just ran out of his better arms.

So I’ve actually been happy with Todd Jones so far.  He’s blown only the one save and then last night’s game, but outside of that, he’s been fairly reliable in his role, and that just happens to be closing games.  I say we keep him there.  Then again, I’ve thought the “closer” has been silly for quite some time so what do I know.

We’re going on our annual baseball trip this year, and it’s a little earlier then normal.  We’re combining a trip to Disney World with a stop at Tropicana Field to see the Devil Rays play the Toronto Blue Jays.  I’ll be back in time to catch the White Sox series, but I’m taking my laptop so I’ll be able to listen to the Tigers take on the Red Sox this weekend.

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